No tropical cyclones as of Tue, 21 Nov 2023 17:23:32 GMT

000

ABNT20 KNHC 210502

TWOAT



Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

100 AM EST Tue Nov 21 2023



For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:



Central Caribbean Sea (AL99):

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean

Sea are associated with a small low pressure area. Nearby dry

air is forecast to prevent additional significant development of

the system as it begins to drift slowly westward during the next

couple of days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.



Central Subtropical Atlantic:

An area of low pressure is expected to develop along a frontal

boundary over the central subtropical Atlantic later today. This

non-tropical low is forecast to move southeastward across the

central subtropical Atlantic over warmer sea surface temperatures

during the next few days, and environmental conditions appear

conducive for this system to gradually acquire tropical

characteristics. A subtropical or tropical storm could form by the

latter part of this week, as the system continues moving eastward

followed by a turn northeastward by the weekend.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.



$$

Forecaster Brown

The National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) urges residents across the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands to remain vigilant and exercise caution throughout the weekend in the wake of Tropical Storm Watches having been discontinued for what was known as Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two.
 
(The islands of Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, Samana Cay, Ragged Island, Mayaguana and Inagua comprise the southeastern Bahamas.)
 
The disturbance is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches with isolated amounts of up to 6 inches over the Southeast Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands on Saturday, November 18. Extensive flash-flooding is anticipated with swells expected to be as high as 7 feet. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents – therefore the need to exercise caution.
 
NEMA continues to closely monitor the path of the Disturbance, in conjunction The Bahamas Department of Meteorology and the Disaster Risk Management Committees in the respective islands. Those Committees were placed on standby as of Thursday (November 16, 2023) and are prepared to respond if necessary.
 
At 7pm Friday, maximum sustained winds associated with the System were near 35 miles per hour with higher gusts. The System was moving towards the northeast near 17mph and an acceleration toward the northeast is expected through the weekend. On the forecast track, the centre of the System is expected to move across the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Saturday morning.

The National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) urges residents across the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands to remain vigilant and exercise caution throughout the weekend in the wake of Tropical Storm Watches having been discontinued for what was known as Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two.   (The islands of Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, Samana Cay, Ragged Island, Mayaguana and Inagua comprise the southeastern Bahamas.)   The disturbance is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches with isolated amounts of up to 6 inches over the Southeast Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands on Saturday, November 18. Extensive flash-flooding is anticipated with swells expected to be as high as 7 feet. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip currents – therefore the need to exercise caution.   NEMA continues to closely monitor the path of the Disturbance, in conjunction The Bahamas Department of Meteorology and the Disaster Risk Management Committees in the respective islands. Those Committees were placed on standby as of Thursday (November 16, 2023) and are prepared to respond if necessary.   At 7pm Friday, maximum sustained winds associated with the System were near 35 miles per hour with higher gusts. The System was moving towards the northeast near 17mph and an acceleration toward the northeast is expected through the weekend. On the forecast track, the centre of the System is expected to move across the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Saturday morning.

No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 20 Nov 2023 05:06:53 GMT