5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 01 Oct 2021 02:55:26 GMT



Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 01 Oct 2021 02:55:26 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 01 2021

000
WTNT23 KNHC 010241
TCMAT3

HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

AL182021
0300 UTC FRI OCT 01 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 61.2W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 938 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......130NE 120SE 90SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 210SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 61.2W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 61.0W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 27.2N 61.8W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 45SE 40SW 45NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 30.2N 61.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 45NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 32.9N 60.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 35.0N 58.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 150SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 36.6N 56.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 38.7N 53.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 170SW 170NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 44.6N 47.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 48.9N 42.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 61.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 01/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 30 2021

000
WTNT35 KNHC 010238
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Victor Advisory Number

7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

AL202021
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 30 2021

...VICTOR STRENGTHENS OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.6N 30.7W
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM SW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Victor was
located near latitude 10.6 North, longitude 30.7 West. Victor is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A
west-northwest to northwest motion over the eastern tropical
Atlantic is expected through the weekend.

Recent satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds
are now near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual
strengthening is forecast during the next day or so. However, a
weakening trend is expected to begin over the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
mainly to the northeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

...POWERFUL HURRICANE SAM NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST... ...DANGEROUS SURF EXPECTED FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SHORELINE...
As of 8:00 PM AST Thu Sep 30
the center of Sam was located near 24.3, -61.0
with movement NNW at 14 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 938 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 145 mph.