5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 01 Oct 2023 02:47:09 GMT





Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 01 Oct 2023 02:47:09 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 30 2023

000
WTNT32 KNHC 010244
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

AL172023
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 30 2023

...PHILIPPE REMAINS DISORGANIZED...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 57.0W
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 235 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British
Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this
system.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 57.0 West. Philippe is
moving toward the southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general
motion should continue through tonight. A turn toward the
northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected Sunday and
Monday, followed by a northward motion on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and
Philippe could become a hurricane early next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Philippe will affect portions of the
Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin
Islands, and Puerto Rico through early next week. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 01 2023

000
WTNT23 KNHC 010243
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM RINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

AL182023
0300 UTC SUN OCT 01 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 52.8W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE

0SW

0NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 30SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 52.8W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 52.3W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 24.7N 54.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 26.5N 55.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 28.7N 55.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 31.1N 54.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 52.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER HOGSETT/PASCH

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 30 Sep 2023 20:48:08 GMT





Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 30 Sep 2023 20:48:08 GMT