Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Sat, 01 Aug 2020 03:51:29 GMT

Issued at 200 AM CVT Sat Aug 01 2020

000
WTNT45 KNHC 010248
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number

2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

AL102020
200 AM CVT Sat Aug 01 2020

The small depression maintained a large burst of convection in its
northwest quadrant for several hours after the last advisory, though
cloud tops have warmed steadily since around 00Z. An ASCAT-B pass
near 2300 UTC showed max winds near 35 kt, but these winds coincided
with the coldest cloud tops in Meteosat imagery at that time,
indicating they may have been rain inflated. Data from ASCAT-C valid
about 40 minutes earlier only showed peak winds closer to 30 kt,
also near the deepest convection. The highest wind retrievals in the
east half of the circulation, where you would often expect the
highest winds for a system moving north or northwest, were between
25 and 30 kt in both passes. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates
were 30 kt and 25 kt from TAFB and SAB, respectively, at 00Z. It is
possible that the cyclone briefly had tropical-storm-strength winds
at one point, but given the observed warming of cloud tops since
00Z, the intensity is maintained at 30 kt for this advisory.

There is no real change to the forecast reasoning. The depression is
moving northwestward and a turn toward the west-northwest is
expected later today as it moves around a larger cyclonic gyre.
Conditions do not appear to be favorable for any strengthening, and
the dynamical models indicate that deep convection will dissipate
later today due to cool underlying SSTs and a drier surrounding
environment. The NHC track and intensity forecast is based on the
TVCA and IVCN consensus aids and has not been changed significantly
from the previous advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 17.1N 21.1W

30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 18.4N 22.5W

30 KT 35 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 19.3N 25.1W

25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 02/1200Z 20.0N 28.0W

20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 01 2020

000
WTNT24 KNHC 010244
TCMAT4

HURRICANE ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

AL092020
0300 UTC SAT AUG 01 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WATCH IS CHANGED TO A HURRICANE WARNING FROM THE
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOCA RATON TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE FLORIDA
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HALLANDALE BEACH TO SOUTH OF BOCA RATON FLORIDA

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JUPITER INLET TO PONTE VEDRA BEACH FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF OCEAN REEF TO SOUTH OF BOCA RATON FLORIDA
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO PONTE VEDRA BEACH FLORIDA

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAIAS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR
WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED ON SATURDAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 76.4W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 20SE

0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 30SE

0SW 50NW.
34 KT.......150NE 70SE 30SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 150SE 90SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 76.4W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 75.9W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 24.5N 77.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 40SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 25.9N 79.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 27.1N 80.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 28.5N 80.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 30.2N 80.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 33.1N 78.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 41.0N 72.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 47.5N 64.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.3N 76.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 01/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

The Public Hospitals Authority (PHA) its agencies and institutions are taking every precaution to protect patients and staff as the Hurricane Isaias approaches the central and northwest Bahamas. The Princess Margaret Hospital (PMH) and the Sandilands Rehabilitation Centre (SRC) will fully activate their Command Centers as of Friday, July 31, 2020.

Princess Margaret Hospital:

PMH wishes to advise that for the duration of the storm, the Emergency Department will only be seeing emergency patients. Non-emergency patients will be seen after the all clear has been given. In the event of a medical emergency contact emergency medical dispatchers at 919 or contact the Hospital Emergency Department at 326-7014.

The Outpatient Pharmacy will suspend operations at 3pm Friday 31st July, 2020. Normal operating hours will resume after the All Clear has been given.

The Family Medicine Clinic on 4th Terrace East will suspend operations at 5pm Friday 31st July, 2020. Normal operating hours will resume after the All Clear has been given.

PMH Blood Bank will suspend operations at 5pm Friday, July 31, 2020. The last donor will be accepted at 4:30pm. The Hospital is in urgent need of all types of blood, the public is encouraged to donate.

Maternity patients with delivery dates between Friday 31st July and Sunday 2nd August, or any maternity patients experiencing signs and symptoms of labour are asked to register with PMH Maternity Ward before 5pm Friday 31st July. Maternity patients considered high risk should contact the Maternity Ward at 328-4929 for further information. All Maternity patients should remain indoors for the duration of the storm.

Sandilands Rehabilitation Centre:

SRC wishes to advise the public that all outpatient services are cancelled until after the all clear is announced. Following the all clear teams will convene to provide scheduling of services moving forward.

Grand Bahama Health Services:

GBHS wishes to inform the public that the Pharmacy at Pearce Plaza will close at 4pm Friday, July 31, 2020.

The Freeport Community Clinic will remain open until 6pm Friday, July 31, 2020. The Pharmacy at the Freeport Community Clinic will remain open until 6pm.

Grand Bahama Community Clinics:

The Eight Mile Rock (EMR) Community Clinic will suspend normal operations at 1pm Friday, July 31, 2020.

EMR Clinic will provide service for emergency cases only until further notice. All remaining community clinics, including High Rock and Grand Cay, Abaco, will close at 1pm Friday, July 31, 2020.

The Non-urgent/General Practice Clinic at the Freeport Community Clinic will remain open from 12 noon until 6pm Friday, July 31, 2020.

Outpatient Specialty Clinic at Pearce Plaza will suspend operations at 1pm Friday, July 31, 2020.

The public is strongly urged to pay attention to all public health announcements, public service announcements and updates regarding health and hospital services during this time.