Weather

Tropical Storm Jerry Graphics

September 21, 2019

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 08:56:34 GMT



Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 08:56:34 GMT

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Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 16

September 21, 2019

Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 21 2019

000
WTNT45 KNHC 210855
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

AL102019
500 AM AST Sat Sep 21 2019

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission earlier this
morning indicated that Jerry had weakened, with the mid-level
eye/center tilted to the east of the low-level center due to some
westerly mid-level wind shear. The highest 700-mb flight-level and
SFMR surface winds reported were 62 kt and 56 kt, respectively,
which supports a lower intensity of about 55 kt. The minimum
pressure of 995 mb is based on center dropsonde data of 999 mb with
a 38-kt surface wind.

Jerry has turned northwestward and the initial motion estimate is
now 310/13 kt. Jerry is forecast to continue moving northwestward
t...

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Tropical Storm Jerry Public Advisory Number 16

September 21, 2019

Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 21 2019

000
WTNT35 KNHC 210854
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

AL102019
500 AM AST Sat Sep 21 2019

...JERRY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TODAY...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 64.0W
ABOUT 755 MI...1215 KM S OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effe...

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Summary for Tropical Storm Jerry (AT5/AL102019)

September 21, 2019

...JERRY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... ...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TODAY...
As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Sep 21
the center of Jerry was located near 21.4, -64.0
with movement NW at 15 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 995 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

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Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Advisory Number 16

September 21, 2019

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019

000
WTNT25 KNHC 210853
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

AL102019
0900 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 64.0W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE

0SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE

0SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 64.0W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z C...

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Tropical Storm Jerry Public Advisory Number 16

September 21, 2019

Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 21 2019

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

AL102019
500 AM AST Sat Sep 21 2019

...JERRY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TODAY...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 64.0W
ABOUT 755 MI...1215 KM S OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings...

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Summary for Tropical Storm Jerry (AT5/AL102019)

September 21, 2019

...JERRY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... ...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TODAY...
As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Sep 21
the center of Jerry was located near 21.4, -64.0
with movement NW at 15 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 995 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

September 21, 2019

000

ABNT20 KNHC 210558

TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

200 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently

downgraded Tropical Storm Jerry, located more than a hundred miles

north of the northern Leeward Islands.

A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward

Islands continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers

and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are currently conducive

for some development, and a tropical depression could form on Sunday

or early next week while the system moves quickly westward to

west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, crossing the Windward Islands on

Sunday. Upper-level winds ar...

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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

September 21, 2019

018

ABNT20 KNHC 210558

TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

200 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently

downgraded Tropical Storm Jerry, located more than a hundred miles

north of the northern Leeward Islands.

A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward

Islands continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers

and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are currently conducive

for some development, and a tropical depression could form on Sunday

or early next week while the system moves quickly westward to

west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, crossing the Windward Islands on

Sunday. Upper-level winds ar...

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Tropical Storm Jerry Graphics

September 21, 2019

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 05:57:24 GMT



Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 03:24:53 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Storm Jerry (AT5/AL102019)

September 21, 2019

...JERRY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM WHILE IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...
As of 2:00 AM AST Sat Sep 21
the center of Jerry was located near 21.0, -63.5
with movement NW at 16 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 995 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

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Tropical Storm Jerry Public Advisory Number 15A

September 21, 2019

Issued at 200 AM AST Sat Sep 21 2019

166
WTNT35 KNHC 210556
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

AL102019
200 AM AST Sat Sep 21 2019

...JERRY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM WHILE IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...

SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 63.5W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM NNW OF ANGUILLA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch for St. Maarten, St. Martin...

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Summary for Tropical Storm Jerry (AT5/AL102019)

September 21, 2019

...JERRY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM WHILE IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...
As of 2:00 AM AST Sat Sep 21
the center of Jerry was located near 21.0, -63.5
with movement NW at 16 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 995 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

read more »

Tropical Storm Jerry Graphics

September 20, 2019

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 03:00:24 GMT



Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 03:24:53 GMT

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Hurricane Jerry Graphics

September 20, 2019

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 03:00:24 GMT



Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 21 Sep 2019 03:00:24 GMT

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Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 15

September 20, 2019

Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 20 2019

000
WTNT45 KNHC 210259
TCDAT5

Hurricane Jerry Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

AL102019
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 20 2019

Jerry has been displaying a classic bursting convective pattern with
a nearly circular CDO that expanded over the circulation since the
last advisory. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission that just
arrived in Jerry indicated that the center is farther northeast than
previously estimated, which appears coincident with the location of
the most recent bursts of convection. Since subjective and
objective Dvorak intensity estimates range from 61 kt to 77 kt, the
initial intensity remains 70 kt. This intensity could be adjusted
based on what the plane finds while investigating the circulation.
The central press...

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Hurricane Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 15

September 20, 2019

Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 20 2019

000
WTNT45 KNHC 210259
TCDAT5

Hurricane Jerry Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

AL102019
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 20 2019

Jerry has been displaying a classic bursting convective pattern with
a nearly circular CDO that expanded over the circulation since the
last advisory. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission that just
arrived in Jerry indicated that the center is farther northeast than
previously estimated, which appears coincident with the location of
the most recent bursts of convection. Since subjective and
objective Dvorak intensity estimates range from 61 kt to 77 kt, the
initial intensity remains 70 kt. This intensity could be adjusted
based on what the plane finds while investigating the circulation.
The central press...

read more »

Hurricane Jerry Public Advisory Number 15

September 20, 2019

Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 20 2019

000
WTNT35 KNHC 210258
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Jerry Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

AL102019
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 20 2019

...JERRY EXPECTED TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO ON SATURDAY
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS STILL POSSIBLE ON THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS, VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND PUERTO RICO...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 62.8W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM N OF ANGUILLA
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH TH...

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Summary for Hurricane Jerry (AT5/AL102019)

September 20, 2019

...JERRY EXPECTED TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON SATURDAY ...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS STILL POSSIBLE ON THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS, VIRGIN ISLANDS, AND PUERTO RICO...
As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Sep 20
the center of Jerry was located near 20.5, -62.8
with movement WNW at 16 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 993 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

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Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Advisory Number 15

September 20, 2019

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019

000
WTNT25 KNHC 210258
TCMAT5

HURRICANE JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

AL102019
0300 UTC SAT SEP 21 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 62.8W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE

0SE

0SW 1...

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