5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 01 Nov 2021 02:37:21 GMT



Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 01 Nov 2021 02:37:21 GMT

000

ABNT20 KNHC 312317

TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

800 PM EDT Sun Oct 31 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Subtropical

Storm Wanda, located about 900 miles west of the Azores.

Disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms continue in association

with a broad area of low pressure located over the tropical eastern

Atlantic, several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.

Some slow development of this disturbance is possible during the

next day or so while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at

10 to 15 mph. By Tuesday, the system is forecast to move into a

region of strong upper-level winds and further development is not

expected.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Subtropical Storm Wanda are issued under WMO

header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.

Forecast/Advisories on Subtropical Storm Wanda are issued under WMO

header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$

Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 31 2021

000
WTNT21 KNHC 312038
TCMAT1

SUBTROPICAL STORM WANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER

4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

AL212021
2100 UTC SUN OCT 31 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 43.2W AT 31/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT

1 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 30SE 70SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 420SE 540SW 540NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 43.2W AT 31/2100Z
AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 43.3W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 35.7N 43.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 35.2N 42.2W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 35.6N 41.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 36.8N 40.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 38.6N 39.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 40.7N 39.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 44.1N 37.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 45.4N 32.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.3N 43.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

...WANDA SLOWING DOWN... ...MAY TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY MONDAY...
As of 3:00 PM GMT Sun Oct 31
the center of Wanda was located near 36.4, -43.2
with movement E at 8 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 987 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.