000

ABNT20 KNHC 201733

TWOAT



Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

100 PM EST Mon Nov 20 2023



For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:



Central Caribbean Sea (AL99):

Earlier satellite wind data indicated that a small but well-defined

area of low pressure in the central Caribbean Sea was producing

winds of 25-30 mph. However, the associated shower and thunderstorm

activity with this system remains disorganized, and nearby dry air

is forecast to prevent much additional development as the system

begins to drift slowly westward over the next few days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.



Central Subtropical Atlantic:

An area of low pressure is developing along a frontal boundary just

to the southeast of Bermuda. This non-tropical low is forecast to

move southeastward across the central subtropical Atlantic over

warmer sea surface temperatures during the next few days, and

environmental conditions appear conducive for this system to

gradually acquire tropical characteristics. A subtropical or

tropical storm could form by the latter part of this week, as the

system continues moving eastward followed by a turn northeastward by

the weekend.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.



$$

Forecaster Papin

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