5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 01 Sep 2023 02:59:54 GMT





Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 01 Sep 2023 02:47:09 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Thu Aug 31 2023

000
WTNT35 KNHC 010243
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

AL102023
1100 PM EDT Thu Aug 31 2023

...IDALIA PULLING AWAY FROM NORTH CAROLINA...
...EXPECTED TO AFFECT BERMUDA THIS WEEKEND...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.1N 71.5W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM ESE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 95 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Idalia was located near latitude 33.1 North, longitude 71.5 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east near 23 mph (37
km/h). A turn toward the east-southeast and east is expected on
Friday and Saturday, accompanied by a considerable decrease in
forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Idalia will
continue moving away from the coast of North Carolina and approach
Bermuda over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast through early Saturday.
Restrengthening is possible over the weekend, and Idalia is expected
to transition back to a tropical storm on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

STORM SURGE: Water levels are expected to recede overnight and
into early Friday. For information specific to your area, please
see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Gusts to tropical storm force are expected to continue along
the coast of North Carolina through early Friday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda by Saturday.

RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 4 to 6
inches, or 100 to 150 millimeters, across Bermuda through Sunday
night. The heavy rainfall may cause areas of flash and urban
flooding on the island.

SURF: Swells generated by Idalia will affect the southeastern U.S.
coast during the next couple of days and will reach Bermuda on
Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 01 Sep 2023 02:43:05 GMT





Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 01 Sep 2023 02:43:06 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 01 2023

000
WTNT21 KNHC 010241
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

AL112023
0300 UTC FRI SEP 01 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 52.4W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW

0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 52.4W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 52.5W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 35.5N 52.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW

0NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 39.9N 51.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE

0SW

0NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.7N 52.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BUCCI