Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2019

000
WTNT43 KNHC 010245
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

AL132019
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2019

Lorenzo has not changed appreciably during the past several hours
on satellite imagery, with an eye still present along with a large
cloud shield in the northeastern quadrant. Dvorak estimates remain
near 90 kt so that will be the initial wind speed. The initial
wind field has also grown according to the latest scatterometer
data, and that is reflected in the wind radii analyses.

The hurricane is now moving faster and has turned northeastward at
about 17 kt. Lorenzo should continue to accelerate to the northeast
during the next couple of days ahead of a large mid- latitude
trough, and the model guidance remains in tight agreement taking the
hurricane near the western Azores. The longer-range future of
Lorenzo is a little clearer tonight as the global models are in much
better agreement on the cyclone turning east- northeastward close to
Ireland and then eastward across Great Britain, dissipating over
western Europe by 96 h. The new forecast is shifted southward, and
is close to a blend of the latest UKMET/ECMWF and GFS solutions.

Lorenzo is forecast to slowly weaken tomorrow due to the cyclone
moving over progressively cooler waters. Extratropical transition
should occur by 48 hours, and there is unanimous global model
agreement on Lorenzo keeping much of its strength through that time.
Weakening is then anticipated while the low approaches Ireland and
the U.K., although the wind speed forecast at 72 hours is
deceptively low since the radius of maximum winds is possibly
already onshore.

It is also worth mentioning that there will be some enormous seas on
the eastern side of Lorenzo. The hurricane will be accelerating to
the northeast in the same general direction for a couple of days.
Combined with the large size and intensity, this is a recipe for an
amplified wave field on the eastern side due to a phenomenon called
trapped-wave fetch. Full information on the High Seas Forecasts can
be found at the Ocean Prediction Center under AWIPS header
NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php.
The UK Met Office also has information in High Seas Forecasts issued
by under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-high-seas/

Key Messages:

1. Lorenzo is expected to bring hurricane and tropical storm force
winds to the Azores beginning Tuesday night, and these conditions
will continue into Wednesday. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings
are in effect for the Azores.

2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across
much of the north Atlantic basin during the next few days. These
swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents,
especially across the Azores.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 32.0N 41.2W

90 KT 105 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 34.1N 39.0W

90 KT 105 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 37.8N 34.2W

85 KT 100 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 42.9N 27.7W

80 KT 90 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 49.0N 21.0W

75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 04/0000Z 55.0N 10.0W

50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

...LORENZO MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND GROWING IN SIZE...
As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Sep 30
the center of Lorenzo was located near 32.0, -41.2
with movement NE at 20 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 956 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

...LORENZO REMAINS ON COURSE TOWARDS THE AZORES...
As of 8:00 PM AST Mon Sep 30
the center of Lorenzo was located near 31.2, -41.8
with movement NNE at 15 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 957 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

Prime Minister the Most Hon. Dr. Hubert Minnis welcomed an announcement by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) that it will contribute one million dollars for Hurricane Dorian recovery efforts in The Bahamas.

During his address to the General Assembly on Friday 27 September, Prime Minister Minnis encouraged the UNDP to expand its network, which is already working with St. Lucia, Dominica, and Antigua and Barbuda, to include The Bahamas.

“I was very pleased to learn of the UNDP’s contribution to Hurricane Dorian recovery efforts,” said Prime Minister Minnis. “We will rebuild stronger and better than before, and with more resilience, but we cannot do it on our own. We also need assistance from our international allies and partners to confront the challenges we face as a country as a result of Hurricane Dorian.”

The UNDP funding will guarantee technical assistance in early recovery interventions for crucial areas, according to the Program. It will also help promote environmentally sustainable resilient infrastructure; develop national and local capacities for disaster-risk reduction and recovery; and support livelihoods and economic recovery of most vulnerable communities.

Since the passage of Hurricane Dorian, the UNDP has been working alongside other UN agencies to support the affected islands of Abaco and Grand Bahama to address both immediate and long-term recovery needs. Recovery experts have already been deployed to rapid recovery assessments and to support the organization of the recovery efforts.

The UNDP helps countries to address diverse development challenges related to building resilience to crises and shocks. The Programme also supports efforts to eradicate poverty and accelerate structural transformation for sustainable development.