...DISTURBANCE'S CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS DECREASING... ...BUT HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT ACROSS JAMAICA, EASTERN CUBA, AND HAITI...
As of 10:00 AM EST Fri Nov 17
the center of Twenty-two was located near 17.5, -79.1
with movement NE at 14 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 17 Nov 2023 08:38:31 GMT





Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 17 Nov 2023 08:38:31 GMT

Issued at 100 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2023

403
WTNT32 KNHC 170546
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two
Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

AL222023
100 AM EST Fri Nov 17 2023

...AREAS OF HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF JAMAICA,
EASTERN CUBA, AND HAITI...

SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 80.8W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM WSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ENE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Haiti
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma,
and Las Tunas
* Southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM EST (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
16.0 North, longitude 80.8 West. The system is moving toward the
north-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northeastward motion is
expected to begin later this morning, with increasing forward speed
through the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of the
system is expected to move across Jamaica later today, southeastern
Cuba by early Saturday, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and
Caicos Islands on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
the disturbance could become a tropical storm later today or
tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two can be found
in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and
WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Jamaica beginning
later today, eastern Cuba and Haiti tonight, and the southeastern
Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Saturday.

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two is expected to
produce storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts
of 16 inches across portions of Panama, Costa Rica, Jamaica,
southeast Cuba, and Hispaniola through Sunday morning. These rains
are likely to produce flash flooding, along with mudslides in areas
of higher terrain.

Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected across the
southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands through Sunday
morning.

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of
onshore winds along the southeastern coast of Cuba, the southeastern
Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands.

SURF: Swells generated by the disturbance are expected to affect
portions of Jamaica, Haiti, and southeastern Cuba during the next
couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Brown

Issued at 1000 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2023

000
WTNT42 KNHC 170233
TCDAT2

Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Discussion Number

2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

AL222023
1000 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2023

The disturbance has generally changed little over the past several
hours. Although some convection has persisted near the low-level
center, the overall convective pattern is quite ragged. In fact,
the strongest thunderstorms are well removed to the northeast of
the center and currently over portions of Jamaica, eastern Cuba,
and Haiti. Since the system still lacks a well-defined center and
organized deep convection, it remains a potential tropical cyclone
for now. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on the
earlier Air Force reconnaissance data.

The system is moving north-northeastward at about 7 kt. A mid- to
upper-level trough currently over the Gulf of Mexico is expected to
push southeastward causing the cyclone to accelerate to the
northeast over the next few days. This motion should take the
center of the disturbance across Jamaica on Friday, eastern
Cuba Friday night or early Saturday, and across the southeastern
Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands later on Saturday. The
system will likely merge with the trough on Sunday, or perhaps
sooner than that. There are significant speed differences in the
models, with the ECMWF being the fastest and some of the hurricane
regional models the slowest. The NHC track forecast is quite
similar to the previous one, and leans toward the faster side of the
guidance envelope.

The environmental factors and the broad and disorganized structure
of the disturbance suggest that the system will likely only a
strengthen a little during the next couple of days. The disturbance
could become a short-lived tropical cyclone while it moves through
the west-central Caribbean region and near the southeastern Bahamas.

However, after it passes that area, strong southwesterly vertical
wind shear should cause the system to lose organization, and the
cyclone is forecast to become extratropical in 48-60 hours when it
merges with the aforementioned mid- to upper-level trough. The NHC
intensity forecast is the same as the previous one and generally
near the middle of the guidance envelope.

The most significant hazard from this system is expected to be heavy
rainfall, especially in areas of higher terrain, across portions of
Jamaica, southeastern Cuba, and Hispaniola.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two is forecast to become a
tropical storm on Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible
across Jamaica, southeastern Cuba, Haiti, the southeastern Bahamas,
and the Turks and Caicos Islands through Saturday, and tropical
storm watches are in effect for these areas.

2. Heavy rains from Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two will
impact portions of Panama, Costa Rica, Jamaica, southeast Cuba, and
Hispaniola through Monday morning. This rainfall is likely to
produce flash flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 15.9N 81.1W

30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 17/1200Z 16.9N 80.0W

30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H 18/0000Z 18.7N 77.7W

35 KT 40 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 20.8N 75.0W

40 KT 45 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 23.9N 71.3W

45 KT 50 MPH
60H 19/1200Z 27.6N 66.7W

45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 20/0000Z 31.9N 62.0W

45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi