000

ABNT20 KNHC 202327

TWOAT



Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

700 PM EST Mon Nov 20 2023



For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:



Central Caribbean Sea (AL99):

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean

Sea are associated with a small low pressure area. Although the

thunderstorm activity has recently increased over the southwestern

portion of the low, nearby dry air is forecast to prevent much

additional development of the system as it begins to drift slowly

westward over the next couple of days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.



Central Subtropical Atlantic:

An area of low pressure is developing along a frontal boundary just

to the southeast of Bermuda. This non-tropical low is forecast to

move southeastward across the central subtropical Atlantic over

warmer sea surface temperatures during the next few days, and

environmental conditions appear conducive for this system to

gradually acquire tropical characteristics. A subtropical or

tropical storm could form by the latter part of this week, as the

system continues moving eastward followed by a turn northeastward by

the weekend.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.



$$

Forecaster Brown

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