Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019

000
WTNT45 KNHC 312052
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

AL052019
500 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019

Dorian's satellite presentation continues to be outstanding. The
eye has remained very distinct and is surrounded by a ring of very
deep convection. The latest information from the Air Force plane
before it departed Dorian supports keeping an initial intensity of
130 kt. Dorian is forecast to move over a deep layer of very warm
waters, and with the prevailing low shear along the hurricane's
path, some additional strengthening is possible during the next day
or so. Most likely, however, the hurricane will experience some
fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall replacement cycles that are
difficult to predict. Beyond 3 days, as the hurricane begins to gain
latitude and encounters increasing shear, gradual weakening is
anticipated, but Dorian will remain a dangerous hurricane through 5
days.

The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west or 280
degrees at 8 kt. The hurricane is being steered by the weak flow to
the south of the ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic.
In about a day or two, most of the global models shift the high
eastward and deepen a trough over the eastern United States.
Consequently, the steering currents should collapse and Dorian
is anticipated to drift toward the northwest and north-northwest
while is moving over the northwestern Bahamas and near the east
coast of Florida. After that time, the hurricane should begin to
move a little faster northward as the trough over the eastern U.S
deepens and should then steer the hurricane toward the northeast by
the end of the forecast period.

The guidance has not changed significantly since the earlier run, so
it has not been necessary to adjust the NHC forecast in this
advisory. The uncertainty in the track is high while the hurricane
is moving slowly across the northwestern Bahamas and near the east
coast of Florida. Any deviation of Dorian's core to the left would
result in an increase in the winds along the east coast of Florida.

Given that the area of tropical storm force winds could expand, and
taking into account the uncertainty in the track forecast, a
tropical storm watch was issued for the east of Florida from
Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet.

Key Messages:

1. A prolonged period of life-threatening storm surge, devastating
hurricane-force winds, and heavy rains capable of life-threatening
flash floods are expected on the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama
Sunday through Monday, and a hurricane warning is in effect for
these areas.

2. A tropical storm watch is in effect for a portion of the Florida
east coast. Since Dorian is forecast to slow down and turn northward
as it approaches the coast, life-threatening storm surge and
dangerous hurricane-force winds are still possible along portions of
the Florida east coast by the early to middle part of next week.
Residents should have their hurricane plan in place, know if they
are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and listen to advice given by
local emergency officials.

3. There is an increasing risk of strong winds and dangerous storm
surge along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North
Carolina during the middle of next week. Residents in these areas
should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian.

4. Heavy rains, capable of life-threatening flash floods, are
possible over coastal sections of the southeastern United States
from Sunday through much of next week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/2100Z 26.2N 74.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 26.4N 75.7W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 26.6N 77.0W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 26.8N 78.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 27.2N 78.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 28.3N 79.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 31.0N 80.0W

95 KT 110 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 34.0N 77.0W

85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila/Brennan

ALERT #23 ON HURRICANE DORIAN ISSUED BY THE BAHAMAS DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY AT 3PM EDT, SATURDAY 31ST AUGUST, 2019.

 ….DORIAN CONTINUES HEADING FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS WITH

LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DEVASTATING WINDS….

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS WHICH INCLUDES: NORTH ELEUTHERA, ABACO, GRAND BAHAMA, BIMINI, THE BERRY ISLANDS AND NEW PROVIDENCE.

 A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD AFFECT THE MENTIONED ISLANDS WITHIN 36 HOURS.

 A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH ANDROS. 

 A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD AFFECT THE MENTIONED ISLAND WITHIN 48 HOURS

 AT 2PM EDT, THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.1° DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 73.9° DEGREES WEST OR ABOUT 158 MILES NORTHEAST OF GOVERNOR’S HARBOUR, ELEUTHERA, 198 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MARSH HARBOUR, ABACO, 220 MILES NORTHEAST OF NEW PROVIDENCE AND 245 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF EAST END, GRAND BAHAMA.

 HURRICANE DORIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT NEAR 8 MPH AND A SLOWER WESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON THIS TRACK, THE CORE OF DORIAN SHOULD MOVE OVER THE ATLANTIC WELL NORTH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS TODAY, BE NEAR OR OVER THE  NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON SUNDAY, AND BE NEAR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST LATE MONDAY.

 MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MILES PER HOUR WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DORIAN IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY BUT DORIAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A POWERFUL HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 

 HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

 RESIDENTS IN NORTH ELEUTHERA, ABACO, GRAND BAHAMA, BIMINI AND THE BERRY ISLANDS AND NEW PROVIDENCE SHOULD RUSH TO COMPLETE ALL HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS AS THERE IS A STRONG POSSIBILITY THAT THE CENTER OF DORIAN WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS ON SUNDAY.  RESIDENTS IN ABACO COULD BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SOON AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AT ABOUT SUNRISE ON SUNDAY.  RESIDENTS IN EAST END GRAND BAHAMA COULD BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

 AS DORIAN IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AS IT NEARS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS, A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES UP TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN SHORES OF ELEUTHERA AND ABACO ON SUNDAY AND THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SHORES OF GRAND BAHAMA ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TO MONDAY MORNING.

 DORIAN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. 

 MARINERS ARE TO REMAIN IN PORT AS MODERATE TO LARGE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT THE EASTERN SHORES OF THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS TODAY.  

Issued at 200 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019

000
WTNT35 KNHC 311742
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 29A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

AL052019
200 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019

...SEVERE HURRICANE DORIAN CONTINUES HEADING FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS WITH LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DEVASTATING WINDS...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.1N 73.9W
ABOUT 205 MI...325 KM E OF GREAT ABACO IN THE BAHAMAS
ABOUT 385 MI...625 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Andros Island

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

Interests in southern and central Florida should continue to monitor
the progress of Dorian. Watches may be required for portions of the
east coast of Florida later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Dorian was
located near latitude 26.1 North, longitude 73.9 West. Dorian is
moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a slower westward
motion should continue into early next week. On this track, the
core of Dorian should move over the Atlantic well north of the
southeastern and central Bahamas today, be near or over the
northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, and move near the Florida east coast
late Monday through Tuesday.

Data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane indicate that the
maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dorian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely, but
Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next
few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by a reconnaissance plane was
945 mb (27.91 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area across the northwestern Bahamas by Sunday, with tropical storm
winds beginning tonight.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds in Great Abaco and Grand Bahama. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week:

Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 inches, isolated 25 inches.
Coastal sections of the southeast United States...4 to 8 inches,
isolated 12 inches.
Central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Swells will begin affect the east-facing shores of the
Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeastern United States
coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

LOCAL weather forecasters predict Hurricane Dorian will make landfall early Sunday morning packing 130mph winds, storm surge and heavy rain.