Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019

000
WTNT45 KNHC 311456
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

AL052019
1100 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019

Dorian's satellite presentation is outstanding with a distinct eye
of about 15 n mi in diameter. Both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane
Hunter planes have been penetrating the eye this morning and based
on a blend of the flight-level and SFMR winds, the initial intensity
has been adjusted upward to 130 kt in this advisory. Dorian is
forecast to move over a deep layer of very warm waters, which is
like high octane-fuel for hurricanes. The combination of the warm
ocean and the prevailing low shear along Dorian's path should favor
some additional strengthening, but most likely the hurricane will
experience some fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall replacement
cycles that are difficult to predict. Beyond 3 days, as the
hurricane begins to gain in latitude a gradual weakening is
anticipated.

Plane fixes indicate that Dorian is moving toward the west or 280
degrees at 7 kt, steered by weak flow to the south of the ridge
of high pressure over the western Atlantic. Most of the global
models shift the high eastward and deepens a trough over the
eastern United States beyond 2 days. This steering flow would
typically favor a gradual turn of the hurricane to the northwest and
north, however there is large uncertainty in the exact location
and timing of this northward turn. Although the latest guidance
has shifted a little bit eastward again this morning, there are
still ECMWF and GFS ensemble members that do not forecast the
northward turn so soon. On this basis, NHC prefers to shift the
track forecast just a little bit to the right of the previous one,
and the new official forecast lies along the western edge of the
guidance envelope. This will allow for further adjustments in the
track during future forecast cycles.

Key Messages:

1. A prolonged period of life-threatening storm surge and
devastating hurricane-force winds are expected in portions of the
northwestern Bahamas, particularly on the Abaco Islands and Grand
Bahama Island. A hurricane warning is in effect for these areas,
and residents should listen to advice given by local emergency
officials and have their hurricane preparations completed today.

2. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds
are still possible along portions of the Florida east coast by the
early to middle part of next week, but since Dorian is forecast to
slow down and turn northward near or just offshore of the coast, it
is too soon to determine when or where the highest surge and winds
could occur. Residents should have their hurricane plan in place,
know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and listen to
advice given by local emergency officials.

3. The risk of strong winds and dangerous storm surge is increasing
along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina
during the middle of next week. Residents in these areas should
continue to monitor the progress of Dorian.

4. Heavy rains, capable of life-threatening flash floods, are
expected over portions of the Bahamas and coastal sections of the
southeastern United States this weekend through much of next week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/1500Z 26.0N 73.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 26.2N 74.7W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 26.6N 76.2W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 26.8N 77.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 27.0N 78.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 28.0N 79.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 30.5N 80.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 33.5N 78.0W

95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 31 2019

ZCZC MIATCMAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

AL052019
1500 UTC SAT AUG 31 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANDROS ISLAND

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 73.4W AT 31/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT

7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 73.4W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 73.0W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 26.2N 74.7W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 26.6N 76.2W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 26.8N 77.4W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 27.0N 78.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 28.0N 79.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 90SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 30.5N 80.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 33.5N 78.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.0N 73.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 31/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

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