Issued at 800 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022

000
WTNT35 KNHC 311151
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

AL152022
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING THE DISTURBANCE...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 76.7W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Grand Cayman Island

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coast of Central America, especially
Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings will likely
be required early this week.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
15.6 North, longitude 76.7 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a westward to west-northwestward
motion is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track,
the center will pass south of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands today
through tomorrow and approach Central America on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. The system is expected to become a tropical storm later
today. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days and
the system could be near hurricane strength by Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft dropsonde data is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area in Jamaica beginning today and are possible on Grand
Cayman Island on Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Through Thursday morning, the system is expected to
produce rainfall amounts of 1 inch, with local amounts to 2 inches
across portions of Hispaniola, the Cayman Islands, northern
Honduras, and eastern Nicaragua. For Jamaica and Belize, rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected, with localized totals of 6
inches in Belize. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to affect
Jamaica and the Cayman Islands during the next couple of days.
These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

THE Bahamas Striping Group of Companies in collaboration with the Ministry of Works and Utilities on Friday presented an Exuma Junkanoo group with a cheque for $5,000 for the upcoming Junkanoo season.

Works and Utilities Minister Alfred Sears as well as representatives from BSGC were in Exuma on Friday to tour road works there. #Mr Sears said it was only fitting that while on the island something be given back to the community. #“I want to thank Caribbean Paving Solutions (a subsidiary company of BSGC) for responding, promoting and nurturing and encouraging the cultural artists of The Commonwealth of The Bahamas and here in Exuma,” Mr Sears said. #“The Musical Youth Junkanoo group in Exuma is keeping the African Junkanoo alive and that tradition nourishes the spirit, it also provides the basis of the orange economy.” #Atario Mitchell, BSGC president, said as someone with a grant-winning company from the government’s Self-Starter programme, he knows the importance of funding. #Mr Mitchell said this is why his company continues to support Junkanoo groups in an effort to get the parade back on the streets and up to the standard it was before the pandemic. #“Our company’s philosophy has always been of always giving back, we saw fit to partner with the Musical Youth of Exuma (Junkanoo group), to donate to them a $5,000 cheque to help them with this upcoming Junkanoo parade,” he said. #Ricardo Rolle, leader of the Musical Youth Junkanoo Group, said the money would help them to prepare for the Exuma Junkanoo parade on January 10, 2023. #“We’ve been fighting and struggling to find sponsorship for a little while now and to date actually this is really the first person that came on board to give to us,” Mr Rolle said. #“We can’t do this without good-hearted people in the community. We really appreciate Bahamas Striping for this. We need a whole heap of raw materials like crepe paper, contact glue, so we’ll send this off to Nassau to get stuff right away.” #Earlier this month, BSGC donated $200,000 to the Roots Junkanoo group in New Providence which was to be disbursed in increments of $50,000 per year over the next four years. #This was a part of a continued partnership established with the Roots. #BSGC got its start in 2010 through an initial $5,000 self-starter grant from the government.

Works and Utilities Minister Alfred Sears as well as representatives from BSGC were in Exuma on Friday to tour road works there.

Mr Sears said it was only fitting that while on the island something be given back to the community.

“I want to thank Caribbean Paving Solutions (a subsidiary company of BSGC) for responding, promoting and nurturing and encouraging the cultural artists of The Commonwealth of The Bahamas and here in Exuma,” Mr Sears said.

“The Musical Youth Junkanoo group in Exuma is keeping the African Junkanoo alive and that tradition nourishes the spirit, it also provides the basis of the orange economy.”

Atario Mitchell, BSGC president, said as someone with a grant-winning company from the government’s Self-Starter programme, he knows the importance of funding.

Mr Mitchell said this is why his company continues to support Junkanoo groups in an effort to get the parade back on the streets and up to the standard it was before the pandemic.

“Our company’s philosophy has always been of always giving back, we saw fit to partner with the Musical Youth of Exuma (Junkanoo group), to donate to them a $5,000 cheque to help them with this upcoming Junkanoo parade,” he said.

Ricardo Rolle, leader of the Musical Youth Junkanoo Group, said the money would help them to prepare for the Exuma Junkanoo parade on January 10, 2023.

“We’ve been fighting and struggling to find sponsorship for a little while now and to date actually this is really the first person that came on board to give to us,” Mr Rolle said.

“We can’t do this without good-hearted people in the community. We really appreciate Bahamas Striping for this. We need a whole heap of raw materials like crepe paper, contact glue, so we’ll send this off to Nassau to get stuff right away.”

Earlier this month, BSGC donated $200,000 to the Roots Junkanoo group in New Providence which was to be disbursed in increments of $50,000 per year over the next four years.

This was a part of a continued partnership established with the Roots.

BSGC got its start in 2010 through an initial $5,000 self-starter grant from the government.

Issued at 500 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022

000
WTNT35 KNHC 310842
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Advisory Number

3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

AL152022
500 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022

...DISTURBANCE LIKELY TO BEGIN STRENGTHENING LATER TODAY...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 76.1W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Grand Cayman Island

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coast of Central America, especially
Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings will likely
be required early this week.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
15.8 North, longitude 76.1 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a westward to west-northwestward
motion is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track,
the center will pass south of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands today
and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
The system is expected to become a tropical storm later today.

Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days and
the system could be near hurricane strength by Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area in Jamaica beginning today and are possible on Grand
Cayman Island on Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Through Thursday morning, the system is expected to
produce rainfall amounts of 1 inch, with local amounts to 2 inches
across portions of Hispaniola, the Cayman Islands, northern
Honduras, and eastern Nicaragua. For Jamaica and Belize, rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected, with localized totals of 6
inches in Belize. This rainfall could lead to flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to affect
Jamaica and the Cayman Islands during the next couple of days.
These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 200 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022

000
WTNT35 KNHC 310545
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

AL152022
200 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022

...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY...

SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 75.5W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 445 MI...720 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Grand Cayman Island

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coast of Central America, especially
Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings will likely
be required early this week.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
15.8 North, longitude 75.5 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and a westward to west-northwestward
motion is expected during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow strengthening is expected, and the system could become a
tropical storm later today. A faster rate of strengthening is
expected starting tonight, and the system could be near hurricane
strength Tuesday night or Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft observations is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area in Jamaica beginning this afternoon and are possible on Grand
Cayman Island on Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Through Wednesday evening, the system is expected to
produce rainfall amounts of 1 inch, with local amounts to 2 inches
across portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola,
the Cayman Islands, northern Honduras, eastern Nicaragua, and
Belize. For Jamaica, rainfall amounts of 2 inches with local
amounts of 4 inches are expected. This degree of rainfall could
lead to flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to affect
Jamaica and the Cayman Islands during the next couple of days.
These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch