Issued at 200 PM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022

000
WTNT35 KNHC 311752
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lisa Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

AL152022
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022

...LISA A LITTLE STRONGER SOUTH OF JAMAICA...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 77.6W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within about 12 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the coast of Central America, especially
Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches or warnings will likely
be required tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lisa was
located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 77.6 West. Lisa is
moving toward the west near 14 mph, and a westward to west-
northwestward motion is expected over the next few days. On the
forecast track, the center will pass south of Jamaica today, south
of the Cayman Islands tomorrow, and approach Central America on
Wednesday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75
km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the
next few days, and Lisa could become a hurricane over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches)

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Jamaica today.

RAINFALL: Through Thursday evening, Lisa is expected to produce
rainfall amounts of 1 inch, with local amounts to 2 inches across
portions of the Cayman Islands, northern Honduras, and eastern
Nicaragua. For Jamaica and Guatemala, rainfall amounts of 2 to 4
inches are expected, with localized totals of 6 inches. For
Belize, rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are expected with
localized totals as high as 8 inches. This rainfall could lead to
flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Lisa are expected to affect Jamaica and
the Cayman Islands during the next couple of days, and begin to
affect Central America tomorrow. These swells could cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

AT 11:00 AM EDT, THE CENTER OF LISA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5° NORTHAND LONGITUDE 77.3 ° WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTH OF KINGSTON JAMAICA OR ABOUT 365 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

LISA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 14 MILES PER HOUR.   ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER WILL PASS SOUTH OF JAMAICA TODAY, AND SOUTH OF CAYMAN ISLANDS TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MILES PER HOUR WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND LISA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

 

AT 11:00 AM EDT, THE CENTER OF LISA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5° NORTHAND LONGITUDE 77.3 ° WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTH OF KINGSTON JAMAICA OR ABOUT 365 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN. LISA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 14 MILES PER HOUR.   ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER WILL PASS SOUTH OF JAMAICA TODAY, AND SOUTH OF CAYMAN ISLANDS TOMORROW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MILES PER HOUR WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND LISA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022

538
WTNT45 KNHC 311453
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Lisa Discussion Number

4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

AL152022
1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022

GOES-16 1-minute visible imagery indicates that the low-level
circulation of the system has closed off again, although the system
is still a bit elongated north-to-south. Westerly shear has caused
the center to be exposed to the west and north of the primary
convective banding features. NOAA Hurricane Hunter tail Doppler
radar data also show that the low is tilted southeastward with
height, a reflection of the current shear. Still, the plane had
numerous SFMR values of around 35 kt, and dropsonde data showed the
pressure has dropped to 1003 mb. These values are sufficient to
call the system a tropical storm with an initial wind speed of 35
kt.

After a dip southward overnight, Lisa is moving westward again at
about 12 kt. The storm should move westward to west-northwestward
for the next day or two under a mid-level ridge to the north. As
the ridge intensifies in a few days, Lisa is likely to move
westward, or possibly a little south-of-west, while it approaches
Belize. Model guidance remains in very good agreement, and
only a small southward adjustment was made to the previous forecast.

Lisa should encounter more conducive atmospheric and oceanic
conditions for the next few days, with increasing mid-level
humidities and generally lower shear. The storm will likely still
have some bouts with drier air infiltrating in the northwestern
quadrant of the circulation, but the diminishing shear should lessen
the impact of this factor. Thus slow intensification is shown for
the next few days, consistent with the interpolated previous
forecast. It should be noted that the new NHC forecast is on the
high side of the guidance for this cycle, with a notable decrease of
the forecast intensity in many of the models. The official
forecast is lower than the previous one, owing to the model trend,
but it is preferable to wait another cycle to make any larger
changes after the model suite ingests the plentiful aircraft data
for the 12 UTC suite.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Jamaica today.

2. Interests along the coast of Central America, especially near
Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will
likely be required by late today.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/1500Z 15.5N 77.3W

35 KT 40 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 15.8N 79.0W

40 KT 45 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 16.3N 81.4W

45 KT 50 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 16.8N 83.9W

50 KT 60 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 17.1N 86.3W

55 KT 65 MPH
60H 03/0000Z 17.1N 88.2W

65 KT 75 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 16.7N 90.0W

40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

As public servants gathered for a Service of Thanksgiving the Hon. Glenys Hanna-Martin, Acting Prime Minister and Minister of Education and Technical & Vocational Training, extended thanks to them for the work they do to keep the wheels of government turning.

She dubbed the week a time of “pure celebration” of public servants to celebratetheir dedication and to remind them of the important role they play in advancingthe nation.

“It is a time to show gratitude to our public servants for their outstanding serviceand invaluable contributions throughout the years. It is a time for recognition oftheir importance to our nation. It is a time to say thank you,” she said.

“I wish to begin by thanking all public servants at every level in this country forthe work you do in keeping the wheels of government turning. Government notin the sense of a political administration, but those collective offerings of servicesand essential undertakings for the Bahamian people.

“These offering and undertakings are a myriad of critical services at various levelsand through various agencies from health care to education, to finance toagriculture and on and on. It is mandatory that the qualitative state of theseofferings to our people is at a high standard and associated with consistent levelsof efficiency.”

Minister Hanna-Martin informed that work is “aggressively” underway to ensureclear career pathways are implemented and that all resources and inputs are inplace to help employees plan successful and rewarding careers within the publicservice.

Additionally, the Government has committed to and achieved timely conclusionof industrial agreements and meaningful efforts are underway to addresslongstanding issues in the public service.

The Service at Mt. Tabor Church, Willow Tree Avenue, Sunday, October 30, setthe stage for National Public Service Week 2022 and was marked with prayers,music and the spoken Word.

In addition to public officers representing various departments and agencies, alsoattending the service were the Hon. Keith Bell, Minister of Labour andImmigration; the Hon. Pia Glover-Rolle, Minister of State for the Public Service;Nicole Campbell, Secretary to the Cabinet; Simon Wilson, Financial Secretary;permanent secretaries, directors; Bishop Neil Ellis, Senior Pastor, Mt. TaborChurch and Rickeno Moncur, Pastor Designate.

Minister Glover-Rolle described the week as a time for “great camaraderie,networking, honor, recognition and celebration in the public service”.

She also expressed gratitude to public servants in every government departmentand agency.

“While we appreciate the efforts public servants make on a daily basis, NationalPublic Service Week is a time when we give special acknowledgement to ourpublic servants in recognition of their contributions. Many of our most dedicatedpeople make countless sacrifices throughout their careers in the name of servingthe public. They are worthy of commendation and congratulations,” she said.

Bishop Ellis applauded public officers for their work.

“You don’t get it right all of the time but I am not one of your critics,” he said.“I applaud you for the work you do. I believe because we are a developing nationand a great people, with great intentions and great minds, it looks like we’re notdoing what we’re supposed to do all the time -- that’s because the expectationand the anticipation of the public you serve is high. It’s only high and great because they know we have great people in the public service.

Don’t bediscouraged or dismayed by criticisms, just allow them to help to shape you intobecoming all that you need to be and all that you were anointed to be,” he said.From October 30 through November 5 public officers throughout the archipelagowill be engaged in activities to highlight the public service and inform the generalpublic about the work they perform.

The theme for Public Service Week is “Honoring the past, enhancing the present,shaping the future.”

 

As public servants gathered for a Service of Thanksgiving the Hon. Glenys Hanna-Martin, Acting Prime Minister and Minister of Education and Technical & Vocational Training, extended thanks to them for the work they do to keep the wheels of government turning. She dubbed the week a time of “pure celebration” of public servants to celebrate their dedication and to remind them of the important role they play in advancing the nation. “It is a time to show gratitude to our public servants for their outstanding service and invaluable contributions throughout the years. It is a time for recognition of their importance to our nation. It is a time to say thank you,” she said. “I wish to begin by thanking all public servants at every level in this country for the work you do in keeping the wheels of government turning. Government not in the sense of a political administration, but those collective offerings of services and essential undertakings for the Bahamian people. “These offering and undertakings are a myriad of critical services at various levels and through various agencies from health care to education, to finance to agriculture and on and on. It is mandatory that the qualitative state of these offerings to our people is at a high standard and associated with consistent levels of efficiency.” Minister Hanna-Martin informed that work is “aggressively” underway to ensure clear career pathways are implemented and that all resources and inputs are in place to help employees plan successful and rewarding careers within the public service. Additionally, the Government has committed to and achieved timely conclusion of industrial agreements and meaningful efforts are underway to address longstanding issues in the public service. The Service at Mt. Tabor Church, Willow Tree Avenue, Sunday, October 30, set the stage for National Public Service Week 2022 and was marked with prayers, music and the spoken Word. In addition to public officers representing various departments and agencies, also attending the service were the Hon. Keith Bell, Minister of Labour and Immigration; the Hon. Pia Glover-Rolle, Minister of State for the Public Service; Nicole Campbell, Secretary to the Cabinet; Simon Wilson, Financial Secretary; permanent secretaries, directors; Bishop Neil Ellis, Senior Pastor, Mt. Tabor Church and Rickeno Moncur, Pastor Designate. Minister Glover-Rolle described the week as a time for “great camaraderie, networking, honor, recognition and celebration in the public service”. She also expressed gratitude to public servants in every government department and agency. “While we appreciate the efforts public servants make on a daily basis, National Public Service Week is a time when we give special acknowledgement to our public servants in recognition of their contributions. Many of our most dedicated people make countless sacrifices throughout their careers in the name of serving the public. They are worthy of commendation and congratulations,” she said. Bishop Ellis applauded public officers for their work. “You don’t get it right all of the time but I am not one of your critics,” he said. “I applaud you for the work you do. I believe because we are a developing nation and a great people, with great intentions and great minds, it looks like we’re not doing what we’re supposed to do all the time -- that’s because the expectation and the anticipation of the public you serve is high. It’s only high and great because they know we have great people in the public service. Don’t be discouraged or dismayed by criticisms, just allow them to help to shape you into becoming all that you need to be and all that you were anointed to be,” he said. From October 30 through November 5 public officers throughout the archipelago will be engaged in activities to highlight the public service and inform the general public about the work they perform. The theme for Public Service Week is “Honoring the past, enhancing the present, shaping the future.”