Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 28 2021

000
WTNT43 KNHC 282040
TCDAT3

Hurricane Sam Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

AL182021
500 PM AST Tue Sep 28 2021

Sam has looked a little less impressive on satellite imagery this
afternoon, particularly on the infrared channels where the eye is
not very well-defined. However, observations from the Air Force
Hurricane Hunters indicate that the hurricane is maintaining
category 4 intensity since a blend of the latest flight-level and
SFMR-observed surface winds support maintaining 115-kt winds. The
aircraft also measured a quite low central pressure of 947 mb on
two passes through the eye. Upper-level outflow remains well
defined except over the southwest quadrant of the circulation, and
several arc clouds are seen emanating from the system over the
western semicircle, indicative of some dry mid-level air in the
environment. However, this dry air is apparently not significantly
affecting the inner core of Sam, given that it has remained a
powerful hurricane.

Center fixes yield a continued slow northwestward motion of around
305/8 kt. There is little change to the track forecast reasoning
from the previous advisories. Sam is likely to move around the
southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge for the next couple of
days. A turn toward the north, ahead of a large mid-tropospheric
trough moving off the United States east coast, is forecast around
day 3. Later in the forecast period, the hurricane is expected to
accelerate northeastward within the flow on the eastern side of the
trough. There is good agreement among most of the guidance models
on this general track, and the official forecast is very close
to the model consensus.

Since Sam will remain in a low-shear environment and over a warm
ocean surface for the next few days, some re-intensification is
possible, and the system is likely to remain a major hurricane
for the next 4 days or so. The official intensity forecast is not
much different from the latest NOAA corrected consensus forecast,
HCCA.

Key Messages:

1. Large swells generated by Sam are affecting the Leeward Islands
and will spread to portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and Bermuda by Thursday or Friday.
Significant swells will likely reach the east coast of the United
States and Atlantic Canada by the weekend. These swells will likely
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and
beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to
follow the advice of lifeguards and local officials through the
upcoming weekend.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 17.9N 55.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 18.6N 55.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 19.7N 57.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 21.0N 59.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 22.8N 60.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 01/0600Z 25.0N 61.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 27.7N 62.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 02/1800Z 33.5N 59.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 03/1800Z 40.0N 53.5W

90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Eighteen Bahamians who are committed to making a difference in The Bahamas in fields ranging from mitigating climate change to ending physical abuse have been awarded generous undergraduate and graduate school scholarships from the Lyford Cay Foundations.

Today’s announcement of the names of academic awardees follows earlier news that for the first time in its 50+ year history, the Foundations saw the majority of successful applicants for vocational scholarships chose training and certification in medical or health-related subjects – perhaps inspired by the great health care needs as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.

“Both groups, academic and technical vocational, were outstanding this year, making the work of the independent screening committees more challenging than ever and many of the students who applied were so impressive that they were also being offered substantial scholarships from top universities, all of which speaks for the quality and reputation of students from The Bahamas,” said Dr. Nicola Virgill-Rolle, Executive Director. “What was of particular interest this year is the common thread in their essays, almost like a fire burning in them – a desire to make a difference in The Bahamas when they return.”

One of those recipients, Empress Sears, a graduate of Sunland Baptist Academy in Grand Bahama, is off to study Ecology and Evolutionary Biology at the University of Toronto with a William Birchall Scholarship. “An issue we as Bahamians should all be concerned about is the lack of attention given to our natural resources,” Sears wrote in her essay. “Our beaches, mangroves, pine forests, and coral reefs are in a state of peril….Overproduction of air pollutants has caused the temperature to steadily climb worldwide. The results of this come in the form of sweltering heat and devastating hurricanes. These effects play a major role in why our natural resources are under extreme stress. It is our duty as Bahamians to seek out the best possible methods to reduce the severity of these natural disasters.”

Two other recipients, Jasmine Adamson and Paul Roberts, plan to tackle the energy problem, focusing on renewables, Roberts at University of California, Berkley, and Adamson at Kettering University. Another, Rhodricia Francis, was inspired by her own family’s experience to become a pharmaceutical chemist. “I believe that Bahamians deserve access to better treatments and medications,” she wrote. “As a pharmaceutical chemist, I will develop novel, effective drugs with minimal side effects and investigate more efficient methods to synthesize current drugs. Efficiency in drug creation will make medication more accessible to the general population.”

Lyford Cay Foundation Chairman Basil Goulandris cited the variety of interests and ambition as “extraordinary.”

“Every year, we think how can next year’s applicants equal this year’s and every year, new applicants surprise us,” he said. “This year, the applicants showed interest in a wide variety of subjects that were very demanding and an extraordinary ambition to make The Bahamas even better.”

Canadian Lyford Cay Foundation Chairman Tim Unwin agreed.

“When you look at the fields of study and the quality of the scholarship recipients for 2021-22, you have to feel that the future of The Bahamas is in good hands,” Unwin declared. “Upon their return to The Bahamas, these wonderful students will find many opportunities to give effect to their vision.”

The Foundations awarded $380,000 in scholarships this year to 26 new recipients in addition to the 27 ongoing scholarships allowing Bahamians to study throughout the US, Canada and the UK. The Foundations have awarded more than $50 million in education benefits to Bahamians along with helping to support non-profits, with an emphasis on those that contribute to education.

Recipients of this year’s new undergraduate scholarships include Paul Roberts - Physics at the University of California, Berkeley; Jasmine Adamson - Mechanical Engineering, Kettering University; Zion Virgil – Chemistry, Florida Southern College; Rhodricia Francis – Chemistry, Florida International University; Jaleah Taylor – Visual Arts/Communications, Media and Film, University of Windsor; Kiara Minnis – Computer Science Degree with Cooperative Education, Lakehead University; Ashanti Marshall – English and Art, St. Francis Xaviers; Shealyn Burrows – Chemistry, St. Mary’s University; Tyler Christie – Biology, St. Mary’s University; Dacacia Russell – Accounting, Mount Royal University; Chandler Darville – Mechanical Engineering, University of Toronto; Alexander Baxter – Management, University of Toronto; Asya Johnson – Computer Science, University of New Brunswick; Empress Sears – Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, University of Toronto.

Those working toward graduate degrees include : Leandria Albury – Public Health Administration and Policy, University of Minnesota; Felecia Campbell – Child and Youth Care, Holland College; Lemuel Johnson – Trumpet Performance, Western Illinois University; and Clarence Albury – Creative Writing, Witchita State University.

IMMIGRATION and Labour Minister Keith Bell said yesterday that the government is hoping to repatriate over 900 Haitian migrants who recently entered the country illegally by the end of this week.

Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 28 2021

000
WTNT43 KNHC 281433
TCDAT3

Hurricane Sam Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

AL182021
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 28 2021

Satellite images indicate that Sam has been generally steady in
strength during the past several hours, and it remains a powerful
category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
The storm has a well-defined eye, and the convective pattern
surrounding the center is fairly symmetric. A 1043 UTC SSMIS pass
showed a closed and symmetric eyewall, with no indication of a
concentric eyewall. The latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB
and SAB were 5.5/102 kt and the CIMSS automated technique is
currently 6.2/120 kt. Based on these satellite estimates and the
overnight reconnaissance data, the initial intensity is held at
115 kt. Another Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate Sam this afternoon.

The major hurricane is moving slowly northwestward, with the initial
motion estimated to be 305/7 kt. A mid-level ridge situated to the
north-northeast of Sam is expected to shift eastward as a deep-layer
trough digs southeastward over the western Atlantic. This change in
the large-scale pattern should cause Sam to speed up and gradually
turn toward the north in 2 or 3 days and then to the northeast in 4
to 5 days. The models are in fairly good agreement, and the new
forecast track is essentially an update of the previous one. Based
on the forecast, Sam should pass well east of the northern Leeward
Island through Wednesday and east of Bermuda Friday night and
Saturday.

Sam is expected to remain in favorable environmental conditions for
it to maintain its intensity, or perhaps strengthen slightly, during
the next day or two. However, after that time, a gradual increase
in southerly shear should promote a slow weakening trend, and Sam
will likely be beginning its transition to an extratropical cyclone
toward the end of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast
is also an update of the previous one and in line with the various
consensus aids. Sam is expected to remain a major hurricane during
the next several days.

The initial wind radii have been adjusted based on a 1114 UTC
ASCAT-A pass.

Key Messages:

1. Large swells generated by Sam are affecting the Leeward Islands
and will spread to portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and Bermuda by Thursday or Friday.
Significant swells will likely reach the east coast of the United
States and Atlantic Canada by the weekend. These swells will likely
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and
beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to
follow the advice of lifeguards and local officials through the
upcoming weekend.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 17.5N 54.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 18.2N 55.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 19.2N 56.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 20.5N 58.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 22.0N 59.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 01/0000Z 24.0N 60.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 26.6N 61.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 32.5N 59.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 03/1200Z 39.2N 54.8W

90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi