Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 30 2018

408
WTNT43 KNHC 300855
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

AL132018
500 AM AST Sun Sep 30 2018

Convection associated with the tropical storm has become more
fragmented over the past 12 hours or so, and now consists of several
broken bands primarily over the southeastern portion of the
circulation. Satellite intensity estimates have not changed much
since the previous advisory, and the initial intensity is held at
45 kt, which is in agreement with earlier ASCAT data and a recent
UW/CIMSS SATCON estimate of 42 kt. The recent warming of the clouds
tops may be associated with cooler waters caused by upwelling
beneath the large, slow-moving tropical storm. Leslie, however is
forecast to move southwestward toward somewhat warmer waters and a
more favorable upper-level environment during the next 2 to 3 days.
This conditions should allow for gradual strengthening, and the NHC
forecast follows the intensity guidance by bringing Leslie to
hurricane strength in about 72 hours. Later in the period, Leslie
is likely to move back over some of the cooler upwelled waters along
its previous track, which could result in gradual weakening.

Recent satellite fixes show that Leslie is moving west-
southwestward or 240 degrees at 4 kt. The tropical storm is caught
between a pair of mid-level ridges and a slow southwestward to
south-southwestward motion is expected over the next 2 to 3 days.
Around mid-week, a shortwave trough moving off the coast of the
northeastern United States is expected to help lift Leslie slowly
northward at days 4 and 5, but the models have trended toward a
somewhat slower solution. Despite the storm's expected slow motion,
the spread in the track guidance becomes fairly large by days 4 and
5, and it appears that Leslie is likely to meander over the Central
Atlantic for quite some time.

Large swells generated by Leslie when it was a strong extratropical
low will affect Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and
most of the Greater and Lesser Antilles through at least the early
part of this week. These swells could cause life-threatening surf
and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 33.8N 52.5W

45 KT 50 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 33.4N 53.2W

45 KT 50 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 32.9N 53.8W

50 KT 60 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 32.5N 54.2W

55 KT 65 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 31.9N 54.5W

55 KT 65 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 30.7N 54.7W

65 KT 75 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 32.4N 54.1W

65 KT 75 MPH
120H 05/0600Z 35.5N 53.0W

60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

...LESLIE EXPECTED TO MEANDER OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK...
As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Sep 30
the center of Leslie was located near 33.8, -52.5
with movement WSW at 5 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 991 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 29 2018

637
WTNT33 KNHC 300241
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

AL132018
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 29 2018

...LESLIE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.9N 52.0W
ABOUT 750 MI...1205 KM ENE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 235 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was
located near latitude 33.9 North, longitude 52.0 West. Leslie is
moving toward the southwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A slow southwest
or south-southwest track is forecast for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 72
hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Leslie will affect Bermuda, the east
coast of the United States, and most of the Greater and Lesser
Antilles through the weekend. These swells will likely cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018

ZCZC MIATCMAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

AL132018
0300 UTC SUN SEP 30 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 52.0W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 235 DEGREES AT

5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......200NE 150SE 100SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 240SE 420SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 52.0W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 51.8W

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 33.4N 52.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 140SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 33.0N 53.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE

0SE

0SW

0NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 32.6N 53.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE

0SE

0SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 32.2N 54.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 120SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 31.0N 54.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 150SW 240NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 31.7N 54.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 34.5N 53.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.9N 52.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

NNNN