000

ABNT20 KNHC 161722

TWOAT



Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

100 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2023



For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:



West-Central Caribbean Sea (AL98):

Satellite data indicate that the circulation associated with a low

pressure area over the west-central Caribbean Sea remains broad,

but the system is producing a large area of showers and

thunderstorms mainly to the east of the center of circulation.

Environmental conditions appear conducive for some additional

development, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the

next day or two while the low moves northeastward toward Jamaica,

Haiti, and eastern Cuba. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance

aircraft is en route to investigate the system.



Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy

rains which would likely result in flash flooding and mudslides over

portions of the Greater Antilles, particularly over Jamaica and

Hispaniola, through this weekend. Interests in Jamaica, Cuba,

Haiti, the Dominican Republic, the southeastern Bahamas, and the

Turks and Caicos Islands should continue to monitor the progress of

this system. Tropical storm watches could be required for some of

these areas as early as this afternoon.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.



Offshore Southeast Coast of United States:

A non-tropical area of low pressure located between southern

Florida and the northwestern Bahamas is associated with a frontal

boundary. Development of this system into a tropical cyclone is

not expected. However, gusty winds and heavy rains are still

possible across portions of the east coast of Florida and the

Bahamas during the next day or so while the low moves northeastward

over the southwestern Atlantic. For more information on this

system, including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by

the National Weather Service.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.



&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service

can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01

KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php



$$

Forecaster Berg

Click here to read more at The National Hurricane Center