Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 03 2023

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Tropical Storm Gert Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

AL062023
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 03 2023

The low-level center of Gert is exposed in proxy-visible satellite
images tonight. Recent ASCAT-B wind retrievals indicate the surface
center is becoming elongated and less defined. There are still
tropical-storm-force winds occurring in the eastern semicircle, with
scatterometer winds as high as 40-42 kt. However, this is more a
product of Gert's translational speed than its paltry convective
structure. Based on these data, the initial intensity is held at 45
kt for this advisory.

Gert is moving quickly northward (010/19 kt) while being captured
within the broader cyclonic flow associated with Post-Tropical
Cyclone Idalia. Gert is forecast to accelerate northward to
north-northwestward while it continues rounding the northeastern
portion of Idalia's circulation. The global models show Gert
becoming absorbed on Monday, and the updated NHC forecast predicts
dissipation by 24 h. However, it is entirely possible that Gert
opens into a trough even sooner based on its current structure.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 35.4N 50.7W

45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 38.5N 52.3W

40 KT 45 MPH
24H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

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