5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2019 20:33:04 GMT



Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2019 20:33:04 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 30 2019

000
WTNT23 KNHC 302030
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

AL132019
2100 UTC MON SEP 30 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORES...CORVO...FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...GRACIOSA...TERCEIRA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAO MIGUEL...SANTA MARIA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 42.1W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.
50 KT.......130NE 120SE 130SW 130NW.
34 KT.......220NE 270SE 200SW 210NW.
12 FT SEAS..390NE 360SE 390SW 510NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 42.1W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 42.6W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 32.8N 40.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.
50 KT...130NE 120SE 130SW 130NW.
34 KT...220NE 270SE 200SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 36.1N 36.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.
50 KT...140NE 150SE 130SW 130NW.
34 KT...250NE 270SE 200SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 40.3N 31.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.
50 KT...150NE 170SE 130SW 120NW.
34 KT...270NE 290SE 230SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 45.9N 25.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 90SE 90SW 70NW.
50 KT...150NE 170SE 130SW 120NW.
34 KT...270NE 290SE 230SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 55.2N 14.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...250NE 250SE 300SW 200NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 56.3N 10.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.9N 42.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 01/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

Prime Minister the Most Hon. Dr. Hubert Minnis met with the Director-General of the World Health Organization (WHO), Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, to discuss how the organization can increase its assistance to Hurricane Dorian reconstruction and recovery efforts in Abaco and Grand Bahama.

Dr. Ghebreyesus is the first WHO Director-General to visit The Bahamas.

Prime Minister Minnis and Director-General Ghebreyesus also discussed the impact of climate change on health, which can exacerbate chronic and contagious disease and increase the risk of pandemics, among other health effects.

The meeting was held on Saturday, 28 September at the Office of the Prime Minister, shortly after the Prime Minister’s return from the 74th United Nations General Assembly in New York, where he urged world leaders to treat the current climate crisis with the greatest of urgency.

The Prime Minister thanked the Director-General for the Organization’s strong support.

Minister of Health Dr. the Hon. Duane Sands also attended Saturday’s meeting.

Prime Minister the Most Hon. Dr. Hubert Minnis, centre, in meeting with Director-General of the World Health Organization (WHO), Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, left, and Minister of Health, the Hon. Dr. Duane Sands, September 28, 2019 at the Office of the Prime Minister.

NEWS ITEM ON HURRICANE LORENZO ISSUED BY THE BAHAMAS DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY FORECAST OFFICE SECTION AT 12 PM, MONDAY 30TH SEPTEMBER 2019.

...LORENZO MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH... 

...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE AZORES...

AT 11 AM EDT, THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENZO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.0°NORTH AND LONGITUDE 42.6° WEST OR ABOUT 1050 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

LORENZO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MILES PER HOUR. A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY, WITH AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF LORENZO IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE WESTERN AZORES EARLY ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MILES PER HOUR WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LORENZO IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY THURSDAY.

THE NEXT NEWS ITEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 6 PM.

PREPARED BY FORECASTER: C. WATSON-RAHMING/P. WEEKS