A dry well

Mon, Nov 24th 2014, 12:08 AM

Free National Movement (FNM) delegates have made their decision.
They have re-elected Dr. Hubert Alexander Minnis as their leader.
Unlike in 2012, Minnis was not elected unopposed.
He beat his former deputy, Loretta Butler-Turner, in a battle whose outcome was not entirely surprising.
The race was not close.
We understand that Minnis secured 290 votes. Butler-Turner got 108.
Minnis' victory on Friday was a victory for stability in the organization.
Obviously elated from the boost of confidence that came with the election win, the FNM leader declared, "The victory train has left the station.
"I say to Perry Christie, Government House, here we come. I am sure Christie realizes that his days are numbered."
We did not think Minnis' declaration sounded too convincing.
But with the victory, we can expect a more confident Hubert Minnis.
The distraction that had been created by Butler-Turner is no more.
What however has not gone away is Minnis' record as leader.
In two-and-a-half years, he has provided ineffective, dismal and uninspiring leadership.
Under his leadership, the FNM has come across as hopelessly deficient.
Minnis has secured a well-earned reputation as a flip flopper and it has been challenging for him to project himself as an authoritative personality who is a viable contender for the post of prime minister.
Yet party insiders believe that there is still hope with Minnis and still time to remake Minnis.
They are hopeful that his re-election would mend the fractures of the last two-and-a-half years.
The FNM has limped along since its defeat at the polls in 2012.
It has been extremely difficult to convey Minnis' leadership abilities.
Some party insiders believe that with the right coaching, and with the distraction of his former deputy now out of the way, it is still possible to mount a convincing campaign against the Progressive Liberal Party with Minnis as leader.
We do not believe Minnis has what it takes to provide inspirational leadership.
He has struggled to find his footing as FNM leader.
We acknowledge however that there are many factors that will determine the people's choice come 2017 or whenever the next general election is called.
We are not hopeful that Minnis will be able to project himself as a strong, visionary leader.
But politics is a strange game.
An electorate frustrated by the administration of the day has been known to do strange and even surprising things.
The FNM's options for leader were severely limited.
Its House of Assembly team is not a deep bench.
We now wait to see what Minnis will do with the reprieve the Free National Movement delegates have handed to him.
His leadership should benefit from the more unified party that is expected to emerge in the wake of the leadership election.
But the road to healing for the FNM will likely be a long one.
Within the next six to eight months there must be signs of a stronger, more well-oiled FNM with a formidable leader if the party is to mount its best campaign against the Progressive Liberal Party.
Minnis is not now a formidable leader, no matter how the FNM attempts to convince us he is.
If the economy improves and more Bahamians start to feel better about themselves and their future in The Bahamas, Minnis and the FNM would have an even tougher battle ahead.
Again, there are factors that none of us can see at this time.
The only thing the FNM can focus on now is rallying behind its leader and attempting to provide a more effective opposing force to the government.
With Minnis as leader, this will be difficult.
We have watched him since 2012 struggle to make his points while flip-flopping from one issue to the next.
Minnis does not have a long time to convince FNMs that they need not regret the second chance they have handed him.
But he has pledged to deliver.
"Your vote is a call to action," Minnis declared in an address to delegates on Friday night.
"It is a call for a more energized, a more united and a more focused leadership. I hear you.
"Our leadership team hears you and I will make sure that the entire Bahamas hears you.
"These are serious times. We have many challenges to overcome, but with your help and through God's grace, we in the FNM will rise to meet every challenge. The future of our country depends on it."
In what could have been a bid to reverse his rejection of former leader Hubert Ingraham following the 2012 North Abaco by-election, instead of reminding us that the Ingraham era is over, Minnis paid tribute on Friday night to Ingraham and his past service.
He declared, "You will always be my prime minister."
While we doubt that Minnis will be able to so sharpen his tools that he turns things around for himself and ultimately reverse the FNM's political fortunes, some observers believe there is a real possibility he can achieve these things.
One pundit highly respected by National Review said on Friday night, "If Minnis is able to galvanize his support within the party, he can do exactly what Ingraham did, position the party to become the next government of The Bahamas."

Team
Minnis has long been burdened by the friction that was apparent between him and Loretta Butler-Turner.
Butler-Turner is a strong personality. She is courageous and charismatic and has done a decent job of seeking to hold the government accountable.
It helps that she is a very good communicator.
But the party has decided that she is not what it needs at this time.
From all that we have seen, former FNM Chairman Darron Cash was no big fan of Minnis, but he attempted to project the FNM as a unified party.
In a statement on Friday night, Cash wished Minnis well.
"The election results clearly demonstrate that Dr. Minnis has been successful in ensuring the election of a team with which he feels most comfortable," he said.
"He has been given a great mandate and I wish him and his new team every success in effectively spending the political capital they have won."
Presumably, if Minnis is more comfortable with the new team than he was with the old, this should work in his favor. But it might not do the party much good.
In his victory speech on Friday night, the new Deputy Leader Peter Turnquest called Minnis "our confirmed leader".
"I thank him for allowing me to be a part of this team," Turnquest said.
"We know with him as leader of this party we are not only going to be successful, this country is going to benefit from tremendous acumen and skill."
The FNM has put in place a leadership team comprised of parliamentarians: Minnis and Turnquest in the House and the new chairman Michael Pintard in the Senate.
Turnquest, a newcomer to frontline politics, has had little effect on the national discourse since his entrance onto the political stage.
He has not been a standout in parliamentary debates. In many circles, he is barely known.
Turnquest is the shadow minister of finance. While he has tried, he has not had a distinctive voice in the many economic matters of importance that have arisen during the Christie administration.
One political observer opined after the results came out on Friday night that by electing the deputy leader from Grand Bahama, the FNM might want to focus on winning back Grand Bahama.
The PLP has so far done little to fire up the Grand Bahamian economy. The island has six seats.
Indeed, Turnquest's victory could mean that the FNM is seeking to bring all factions together.
In his victory speech, he told delegates, "We must draw strength from this victory.
"We must submerge our differences and prepare this great party for the next election."
Turnquest drew on the memory of the late Dr. Myles Munroe, the Bahamas Faith Ministries International leader who was killed in a plane crash on Grand Bahama on November 9.
The new FNM deputy pointed to Munroe's frequent teachings on passing the leadership baton.
"Tonight, the FNM has passed the baton to a new leader," said Turnquest, referring to the deputy leadership post.
But Turnquest and Minnis will likely prove to be a dull match.
There is a certain energy that will be required to fire up the party's base ahead of the next battle at the polls.
The two of them together could make this a difficult prospect.
It is just hard to get excited about them.
As a pair, they do not have much political attractiveness.
Peter Turnquest is a nice guy, but he has little political appeal.
What is clear to astute observers is that Minnis can be comforted that Turnquest will not outshine him. Turnquest will not challenge him or create any sort of discomfort.
As a leader, for his own good, this is what Minnis feels he needs at this time.
If he were paired with Darron Cash or Dr. Duane Sands, it is likely that he would be dwarfed on many levels.
But Turnquest will likely be unable to prop Minnis up as leader.
While Minnis will probably try to stick to a script and a carefully drafted playbook, he would likely skate on thin ice when it comes to thinking on his feet and debating the issues in and outside of Parliament with those on the other side.
While as a team, Minnis and Turnquest might prove unimpressive, the party should benefit from the dynamism of its new chairman, Michael Pintard.

Loretta
Butler-Turner's defeat was not surprising, at least not for us.
Unless her genuine goal was simply to make a statement, she badly miscalculated support within her party for the leadership position.
We doubt there is any hope for her to lead the FNM ahead of the next election.
Knowing Butler-Turner's love for and commitment to the party, however, we believe she will buy into Minnis' admonition that while everyone cannot win, everyone can serve.
If Butler-Turner's fighting spirit is not diminished by her defeat on Friday, she would still prove most valuable to the FNM in providing strong leadership in Parliament.
She has demonstrated that she has the fire to do just that.
We predict that she will continue to outshine her leader in parliamentary debates.
On Friday night, Minnis extended an olive branch to Butler-Turner.
"I say to Loretta, I salute you and I want to say to Loretta publicly, and on national radio and TV, that you are formidable, and like your grandfather, fearless," Minnis said.
"Your tenacity and clarity of purpose has no doubt inspired many to our mission to replace this ineffective embarrassing government. Loretta, you have made me stronger."
Minnis added, "There is a place for you in the FNM. The FNM needs you. I need you. The people across this country need you. You have taught me much over these past few months and have made me even more battle ready."
While Minnis may be battle ready -- in his own mind anyway -- the FNM is far from it.
There is nothing about the leadership team of the FNM that shows us there is fire in the belly, that says we are the leaders for these times.
A Hubert Minnis-led FNM is positive news for both a Perry Christie-led PLP and for the Democratic National Alliance.
Minnis predicted on Friday night, "Come 2017 there will be new leadership in this country and I say to you tonight, it will be FNM leadership."
We are far off from knowing if his prediction would prove accurate.
In the absence of more effective and dynamic leadership, Minnis could very well be replaced before the next election, party insiders have told National Review.
With Minnis as leader, the FNM is dipping into a dry well.
It is trying to pick fruit from a barren tree.
It will no doubt do all that it can to convey a unified party with a low tolerance for discord, as former chairman Cash noted last week.
But with Minnis at the helm, the FNM will likely remain a listless political organization.

Click here to read more at The Nassau Guardian

 Sponsored Ads