Impact of web shop closures unclear

Wed, Jan 30th 2013, 11:09 AM

As the country comes to grips with Monday's referendum result, opinions are mixed on whether the closing of web shops will have a major and lasting impact on the economy.
The "Vote Yes" campaign, strongly led by web shop owners and their employees, ran a platform emphasizing high employment numbers in the domestic gambling industry. Although the figure has never been unequivocally proven, it's speculated that some 3,000 people rely on web shops to make ends meet.
Zhivargo Laing, the former minister of state for finance, said there would indeed be a negative impact on the economy in the short term.
"But the monies they were earning remains in the economy," he argued. "That money will just be spent in different places. Even if the money isn't spent, the net result will be nil, because it was a domestic economic activity. The GDP (gross domestic product) shouldn't suffer."
Laing told Guardian Business that the displacement of funds could actually create new economic opportunities. Rather than spending money on gambling, Bahamians could allocate resources to other areas.
Franklyn Wilson, the chairman of Sunshine Holdings Limited, said the loss of employment would have a more substantial impact.
He questioned whether unemployed Bahamians would have realistic avenues for new jobs in this particular macroeconomic environment.
"So I don't know how useful it is to predict beyond the short run," he said. "There are so many forces at work here. But certainly, the prospects of those unemployed are not very promising."
A wild card in the whole matter, he added, is whether law suits by web cafes are successful in their battle to stay open. The government would be under pressure to close the web shops right away. However, he said the issue may be complicated by legal arguments.
Richard Coulson, a well-known financial consultant, said he is equally mystified on the long-term economic impact.
He argued that employment numbers for web shops are not altogether clear.
"It's just one big question mark," he said.
He agreed with Laing, in the sense that it could open up other possibilities to create jobs and revenue, such as the development of a renewable energy sector.
On Monday, Bahamians strongly rejected both questions on the gambling referendum, saying no to the regulation of web shop gaming and the establishment of a national lottery. The government has committed to "enforcing the law" and living up to its pledge to shut down the web shops.
The Bahamas already suffers from double-digit unemployment.

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