Issued at 1000 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2023

000
WTNT42 KNHC 170233
TCDAT2

Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two Discussion Number

2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

AL222023
1000 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2023

The disturbance has generally changed little over the past several
hours. Although some convection has persisted near the low-level
center, the overall convective pattern is quite ragged. In fact,
the strongest thunderstorms are well removed to the northeast of
the center and currently over portions of Jamaica, eastern Cuba,
and Haiti. Since the system still lacks a well-defined center and
organized deep convection, it remains a potential tropical cyclone
for now. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on the
earlier Air Force reconnaissance data.

The system is moving north-northeastward at about 7 kt. A mid- to
upper-level trough currently over the Gulf of Mexico is expected to
push southeastward causing the cyclone to accelerate to the
northeast over the next few days. This motion should take the
center of the disturbance across Jamaica on Friday, eastern
Cuba Friday night or early Saturday, and across the southeastern
Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands later on Saturday. The
system will likely merge with the trough on Sunday, or perhaps
sooner than that. There are significant speed differences in the
models, with the ECMWF being the fastest and some of the hurricane
regional models the slowest. The NHC track forecast is quite
similar to the previous one, and leans toward the faster side of the
guidance envelope.

The environmental factors and the broad and disorganized structure
of the disturbance suggest that the system will likely only a
strengthen a little during the next couple of days. The disturbance
could become a short-lived tropical cyclone while it moves through
the west-central Caribbean region and near the southeastern Bahamas.

However, after it passes that area, strong southwesterly vertical
wind shear should cause the system to lose organization, and the
cyclone is forecast to become extratropical in 48-60 hours when it
merges with the aforementioned mid- to upper-level trough. The NHC
intensity forecast is the same as the previous one and generally
near the middle of the guidance envelope.

The most significant hazard from this system is expected to be heavy
rainfall, especially in areas of higher terrain, across portions of
Jamaica, southeastern Cuba, and Hispaniola.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two is forecast to become a
tropical storm on Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible
across Jamaica, southeastern Cuba, Haiti, the southeastern Bahamas,
and the Turks and Caicos Islands through Saturday, and tropical
storm watches are in effect for these areas.

2. Heavy rains from Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two will
impact portions of Panama, Costa Rica, Jamaica, southeast Cuba, and
Hispaniola through Monday morning. This rainfall is likely to
produce flash flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 15.9N 81.1W

30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 17/1200Z 16.9N 80.0W

30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H 18/0000Z 18.7N 77.7W

35 KT 40 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 20.8N 75.0W

40 KT 45 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 23.9N 71.3W

45 KT 50 MPH
60H 19/1200Z 27.6N 66.7W

45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 20/0000Z 31.9N 62.0W

45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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