000

ABNT20 KNHC 101738

TWOAT



Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

200 PM EDT Tue Oct 10 2023



For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:



Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92):

A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest

of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a large area of

showers and thunderstorms. This activity has become a bit more

concentrated while also showing signs of organization, and

environmental conditions appear conducive for additional

development. A tropical depression is likely to form during the next

couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward or

northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.



Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL93):

Showers and thunderstorms have not become any better organized this

afternoon in association with an area of low pressure over the

southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear only

marginally favorable and this system has a short window to develop

further over the next day or so. By Wednesday morning, the system is

forecast to merge with a developing frontal boundary over the

western Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance aircraft

is in route to investigate the system this afternoon and will

provide more information about the system's structure.



Regardless of tropical cyclone development, the system is forecast

to produce gale-force winds over portions of the northern Gulf of

Mexico by tomorrow, and potentially heavy rainfall along the Gulf

Coast by the latter portion of this week. For more information, see

products from your local National Weather Service office, and high

seas forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.



&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service

can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01

KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php



$$

Forecaster Papin

Click here to read more at The National Hurricane Center