Public approval can be fleeting

Tue, Sep 12th 2023, 07:51 AM

Prime Minister Philip Davis and the Davis administration yesterday got an anniversary gift from a poll of the public that gave them relatively good marks.

The goal of any political party in The Bahamas is to get elected as that is the only way to wield the power of the state.

It does not matter if voter turnout is high or low, whoever wins the popular vote and amasses the most seats is given power.

Naturally, popular appeal is critically important.

All parties with the resources conduct polling on how they are perceived by the eligible voters among the public.

It's important to note that while political polling offers valuable insights, it is not without limitations and potential sources of error, such as sampling bias, question wording, and the timing of the poll.

Nonetheless, when conducted rigorously and transparently, political polling serves as a valuable tool for understanding and navigating the dynamics of public opinion.

It is especially useful for the Progressive Liberal Party and the Davis administration, given the circumstances in which they were elected two years ago this week.

The last election saw a historic low voter turnout.

About 65 percent of registered voters showed up to the polls in a country where general election turnout often eclipses 90 percent.

Ultimately, the PLP was ushered into office with only 34 percent of registered voters casting ballots in its favor.

The reasons for this may be myriad.

The pandemic was still a major concern in September 2021.

The voter register became permanent and those not required to register were still required to change their address to vote in their constituency.

Many did not think to do so as the registration process every cycle solved that issue.

Many people said it was dejection among the public after the Minnis administration's poor performance.

And many people took it as a sign that those who no longer supported Minnis, did not support Davis as he led the PLP into the election.

However, the results of a survey conducted in recent days by the Bahamian market research and strategy firm Public Domain reflects that Davis, and his government, still have popular support among eligible voters.

Public Domain asked respondents whether they approve of the job being done by the prime minister.

Twenty-three percent said they strongly approve and 42 percent said they somewhat approve.

Nine percent somewhat disapprove; nine percent strongly disapprove and 16 percent said they don't know.

There was not a huge difference in percentages when broken down by sex and age.

When asked if they approve of the job being done by the government, 21 percent said they strongly approve and 43 percent said they somewhat approve.

Ten percent said they somewhat disapprove and 11 percent said they strongly disapprove.

Sixteen percent said they don't know.

The largest "strongly disapprove" response came from males 55 and older - 22 percent said they strongly disapprove of the job being done by the Davis administration.

Nineteen percent of males 55 and older said they "strongly disapprove" of the job being done by the prime minister himself.

The largest "strongly approve" response to both questions also came from males in that age group - in both instances, 28 percent said they strongly approve of the job the prime minister is doing, and the job the Davis administration is doing.

Public Domain said it conducted a telephone survey September 5-7, 2023.

Interestingly, the poll, which Public Domain said it funded, was conducted in the days following the announcement of Davis reshuffling his Cabinet in the aftermath of the scandal at the Department of Immigration.

Perhaps that helped boost the numbers, perhaps not.

More than likely, the robust economy and decreased unemployment, despite high inflation and obscene electricity bills, played the biggest role in the approval rating.

Also, while not always making policy decisions we agree with, Davis himself is extremely likeable.

A 60 percent approval rating is good, but not exactly knocking it out of the park.

However, no administration will make everyone happy.

The current one has had some successes with its handling of the pandemic, lowering the deficit and value-added tax and increasing revenue collection.

But it has also had some missteps.

We want the current government to do well for all our sakes.

Though the Davis administration appears to remain popular, it should keep in mind that the deadline for another general election is still three years away and public approval can be fleeting.

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