Issued at 1000 PM CDT Thu Jun 01 2023

000
WTNT42 KNHC 020238
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number

2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

AL022023
1000 PM CDT Thu Jun 01 2023

The depression remains a sheared tropical cyclone. While a new burst
of moderate to deep convection has developed this evening over the
northeastern portion of the circulation, the center is exposed and
appears elongated based on satellite imagery and low-level GOES-16
derived motion winds. Given the lack of improvement in its
structure, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on a blend
of the earlier aircraft data and more recent satellite estimates.

The cyclone appears to be moving slowly southward in the latest
satellite imagery, with an estimated initial motion of 180/3 kt. As
the associated upper-level trough axis continues to shift eastward,
deep-layer northwesterly flow is expected to steer the cyclone
southward to south-southeastward at a slightly faster speed during
the next couple of days. The latest track guidance remains in good
agreement on this scenario, and the latest NHC forecast is very
similar to the previous one with only minor adjustments based on the
latest consensus aids.

There is still a brief window for some modest strengthening during
the next 6-12 h, as the warm Gulf SSTs and cold temperatures aloft
could provide enough instability to support more deep convection
during the overnight diurnal maximum period. The official NHC
forecast still calls for the system to briefly become a tropical
storm before environmental conditions become increasingly hostile
later on Friday and into Saturday. In addition to increasing
deep-layer shear, dry air in the surrounding environment and less
favorable dynamics will make it difficult for the cyclone to sustain
organized convection and should induce a weakening trend. This
forecast shows the cyclone degenerating to a remnant low by 48 h and
dissipating by 60 h, with support from the latest GFS and ECMWF
model-simulated satellite imagery.

Based on the latest track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts,
coastal watches and warnings are not necessary at this time.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 27.5N 86.5W

30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 26.8N 86.5W

35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 25.4N 86.4W

30 KT 35 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 23.9N 86.0W

25 KT 30 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 22.9N 85.1W

25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Click here to read more at The National Hurricane Center