000

ABNT20 KNHC 031749

TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

200 PM EDT Mon Oct 3 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:

Showers and thunderstorms have increased today in association with

an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest

of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are conducive

for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form

in a day or two. Further development will become less likely late

this week due to increasing upper-level winds. The system is

forecast to move west-northwestward and then turn northwestward by

mid-week over the eastern tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

East of the Windward Islands:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located

several hundred miles east of the southern Windward Islands have

changed little in organization during the last several hours. Slow

development is possible during the next several days while the wave

moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph, reaching the Windward

Islands and the eastern Caribbean Sea by midweek. Interests in the

Windward Islands should monitor the progress of the system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$

Forecaster Hagen/Brown

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