000

ABNT20 KNHC 311745

TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

200 PM EDT Wed Aug 31 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic:

Data from a NOAA aircraft reconnaissance mission earlier today

showed little change in organization of the area of low pressure

located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles.

Although environmental conditions are only marginally conducive,

additional gradual development of this system is expected and a

tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of

days. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly

west-northwestward, toward the adjacent waters of the northern

Leeward Islands. Additional information on this system can be found

in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low

pressure located just to the northeast of the Cabo Verde Islands

have changed little since earlier today. Some gradual development is

possible, and the system could become a short-lived tropical

depression over the far eastern Atlantic during the next

couple of days. By late this week, environmental conditions are

forecast to become increasingly unfavorable for further development.

Regardless, the system could bring locally heavy rainfall to

portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Thursday.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Central Subtropical Atlantic:

An area of low pressure is showing signs of organization over the

central subtropical Atlantic about 850 miles west-southwest of the

westernmost Azores. Environmental conditions are expected to be

conducive for development, and a tropical or subtropical depression

is likely to form within the next day or so, while the system

drifts generally eastward. Additional information on this system

can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather

Service.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service

can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01

KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$

Forecaster Bucci/Pasch

Click here to read more at The National Hurricane Center