000

ABNT20 KNHC 302356

TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

800 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located over the west-central Caribbean Sea is

expected to continue moving westward over the next couple of days,

and produce a broad area of low pressure over the western Caribbean

Sea or extreme southern Gulf of Mexico by Thursday night or Friday.

Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some

development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over

the weekend while the system moves slowly west-northwestward over

the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Interests in Belize, the Yucatan

Peninsula, and western Cuba should monitor the progress of this

disturbance.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Another tropical wave located a few hundred miles east of the Lesser

Antilles is producing widespread cloudiness and disorganized shower

activity. This disturbance is forecast to move westward during the

next several days where environmental conditions could become a

little more conducive for development over the central or western

Caribbean Sea by early next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$

Forecaster Stewart

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