Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 23 2020

000
WTNT45 KNHC 230841
TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Discussion Number 44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

AL202020
500 AM AST Wed Sep 23 2020

Teddy's deep convection has been diminishing, but based on buoy
observations the cyclone still has a strong circulation with a
central pressure in the 950's. Assuming a gradual spindown of the
system since the earlier aircraft observations, the estimated
maximum winds have dropped to just below hurricane strength. The
system is expected to traverse Nova Scotia today as a strong
extratropical cyclone, and move near Newfoundland by tonight. After
passing east of Labrador on Thursday, the global models show Teddy
merging with another large extratropical low over the north
Atlantic.

The estimated initial motion is north-northeastward or 025/20 kt.

Teddy is embedded within a deep-layer trough that is located in the
vicinity of Atlantic Canada. The post-tropical cyclone should move
north-northeastward on the eastern side of the trough for the next
36-48 hours before it merges with the other low. The official
track forecast is very similar to the previous one and also closely
follows the corrected multi-model consensus, HCCA.

Even after Teddy passes Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, large swells
will linger over much of the southwestern Atlantic basin for the
next few days.

Key Messages:

1. Teddy is expected remain a powerful post-tropical cyclone
while it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada through
tonight. The most significant hazard expected from Teddy is large
destructive waves forecast along the southern coast of Nova Scotia
today.

2. Very large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect
portions of Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the
Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada
during the next few days. These swells are expected to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

3. Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect for portions
of Nova Scotia, Newfoundland, Prince Edward Island and the Magdalen
Islands, and heavy rainfall across Atlantic Canada is expected
through Thursday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 44.5N 62.7W

60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 23/1800Z 47.5N 60.6W

55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 24/0600Z 52.3N 56.7W

45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/1800Z 57.0N 53.5W

40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 25/0600Z...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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