Tropical Storm Josephine Forecast Discussion Number 11

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August 14, 2020

Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Aug 14 2020

000
WTNT41 KNHC 140836
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

AL112020
500 AM AST Fri Aug 14 2020

As has been the case for the last couple of days, the center of the
tropical storm is displaced to the south of the main area of deep
convection. Some new convective cells have been forming nearer to
the estimated center, but the overall cloud pattern is quite
ragged-looking at this time. ASCAT data from a few hours ago
indicate that the intensity is near 35 kt, which is consistent with
the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. NOAA data buoy 41040
confirmed that the system still has a closed circulation since it
reported light westerly winds while the center of Josephine passed
to its north. An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft
is scheduled to investigate the storm later today. Josephine is
beginning to move into an environment of increasing vertical shear
associated with a large upper-tropospheric trough over the western
Atlantic. Therefore, the window of opportunity for strengthening
is closing soon. The official intensity forecast allows for some
intensification during the next 24 hours before the upper-level
winds become prohibitively strong. However, the NHC forecast is
now above most of the model intensity guidance through 72 hours.

The storm continues its west-northwestward motion and is moving at
about 300/15 kt. Josephine should continue this general motion
as it approaches a weakness in the subtropical ridge in 48 hours or
so. Then, the cyclone should turn northward and move through the
weakness in 3-4 days. Late in the forecast period, Josephine or
its remnants are expected to turn north-northeastward while it
approaches the higher-latitude westerlies. The official track
forecast is essentially the same as the previous one, and also lies
close to the latest corrected multi-model consensus.

Josephine should pass far enough to the northeast of the Leeward
Islands over the weekend to prevent major impacts. However,
interests in the area should continue to monitor its progress until
the storm has passed north of that area.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 15.3N 53.3W

35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 16.5N 55.3W

40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 18.0N 58.1W

45 KT 50 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 19.1N 60.6W

45 KT 50 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 20.3N 62.9W

40 KT 45 MPH
60H 16/1800Z 21.6N 65.1W

35 KT 40 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 23.1N 66.7W

35 KT 40 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 26.0N 67.8W

30 KT 35 MPH
120H 19/0600Z 30.0N 66.5W

25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Click here to read more at The National Hurricane Center

News date : 08/14/2020    Category : Hurricane, Weather

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