Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 11 2020

913
WTNT41 KNHC 120233
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number

2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

AL112020
1100 PM AST Tue Aug 11 2020

After weakening in the early evening hours, deep convection has
returned to the western semicircle of the tropical cyclone. While
this is quite a strong burst, it appears that the convective
pattern is indicative of the shear it is encountering, rather than
any strengthening. This is confirmed by ASCAT-B data from a few
hours ago, which supported maintaining an initial wind speed of 30
kt.

By this time tomorrow, the depression is forecast to become a
tropical storm due to decreasing vertical wind shear, and this
environmental change should also keep some of the surrounding
mid-level dry air from mixing near the center. Gradually warming
SSTs and relatively low shear conditions suggest further
intensification through about 2-3 days. Thereafter, increasing
southwesterly shear while the small cyclone moves through fairly dry
air aloft is forecast to cause a weakening trend, and it wouldn't
be surprising if the cyclone even degenerates to a trough by day 5
as it traverses the hostile environment. The new NHC wind speed
prediction is near but slightly higher than the previous advisory
through 60h, similar afterwards, and lies near the NOAA
corrected-consensus mean.

The depression continues moving westward, or 280/12 kt, to the
south of a large mid-tropospheric high centered over the central
Atlantic. A break developing in the ridge should steer the
depression more west-northwestward from 36 hours until the end of
the forecast period. For a second advisory, the track models are in
remarkably good agreement, and the forecast is near or northeast of
the model consensus. The HWRF solution that takes the cyclone near
the Leeward Islands is considering less likely at this time, hence
the official forecast is shaded toward the other model solutions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 12.0N 41.5W

30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 12.3N 43.4W

30 KT 35 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 12.8N 45.9W

35 KT 40 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 13.5N 48.3W

40 KT 45 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 14.5N 50.8W

45 KT 50 MPH
60H 14/1200Z 15.7N 53.3W

50 KT 60 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 17.0N 55.7W

45 KT 50 MPH
96H 16/0000Z 19.5N 60.5W

40 KT 45 MPH
120H 17/0000Z 22.0N 65.0W

35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

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