Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur Forecast Discussion Number 12

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May 19, 2020

Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue May 19 2020

000
WTNT41 KNHC 191446
TCDAT1

Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

AL012020
1100 AM AST Tue May 19 2020

Arthur has transitioned into an extratropical low this morning with
a warm front extending northeastward from the circulation, any deep
convection only along the front, and lots of more stable cumulus
clouds near the center. Thus this is the last advisory. The
initial intensity remains 50 kt based on continuity and model
analyses.

The main adjustments to the previous forecast include a quicker
dissipation of the post-tropical cyclone, somewhat linked to the
models showing a faster weakening after 12 hours, and a
continuation of the westward shift in the track forecast in a day
or two. These changes are consistent with the latest model
consensus for track and similar to a GFS/ECMWF blend for intensity.

Dangerous coastal surf conditions and rip currents are expected to
continue along portions of the mid-Atlantic and southeast U.S.
coasts during the next couple of days. See products from your local
National Weather Service Forecast Office for more details.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 36.8N 68.6W

50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 20/0000Z 36.4N 66.9W

50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 20/1200Z 35.2N 65.6W

45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 21/0000Z 33.6N 65.0W

40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 21/1200Z 32.0N 64.5W

30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

Click here to read more at The National Hurricane Center

News date : 05/19/2020    Category : Hurricane, Weather

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