Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019

000
WTNT25 KNHC 221441
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

AL102019
1500 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JERRY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 66.6W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT

9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE

0SW

0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 90SE

0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 75SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 66.6W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 66.5W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 26.9N 67.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE

0SW

0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE

0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 28.2N 67.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE

0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 29.5N 67.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE

0SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 31.0N 68.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE

0SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 35.0N 63.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE

0SW

0NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 110SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 40.0N 54.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 45.0N 45.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.7N 66.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

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