Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 30 2018

613
WTNT43 KNHC 301433
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

AL132018
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 30 2018

Deep convection has increased a little during the past several hours
in a band to the southeast of the center, but the shower activity
remains quite limited elsewhere in the circulation. The latest
satellite intensity estimates and a recent ASCAT pass still support
an initial intensity of 45 kt. Leslie is expected to be moving into
a lower wind shear environment and over warmer SSTs during the next
few days. These conditions should support some gradual
strengthening during that time period. After that time, however,
Leslie is expected to move over cooler waters, partly induced by its
own upwelling, as it heads northeastward back over its previous
track. Accordingly, slight weakening is shown toward the end of the
forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the
previous one and generally follows the consensus models, IVCN and
HCCA.

Leslie is drifting to the southwest, with the latest initial motion
estimate being 230/3 kt. Leslie is caught in very weak steering
currents, and a continued slow southwest to south motion is expected
during the next few days. Thereafter, the models show a weak
trough developing to the southwest of Leslie and that should cause
the system to move northeastward at a slightly faster pace. The
models have trended a little to the east this cycle, and the NHC
forecast has been adjusted in that direction. The bottom line is
that Leslie is forecast to meander over the central Atlantic
through the forecast period.

Large swells generated by Leslie when it was a strong extratropical
low will continue to affect Bermuda, the east coast of the United
States, and most of the Greater and Lesser Antilles for another day
or two. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip
currents. Although the swells will diminish some by mid-week, they
will likely remain hazardous for the same locations through the
forecast period due to Leslie's slow motion.

The initial 34-kt wind radii were adjusted based on a 1257 UTC
ASCAT pass.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 33.6N 52.6W

45 KT 50 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 33.2N 53.1W

50 KT 60 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 32.9N 53.6W

55 KT 65 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 32.3N 54.0W

55 KT 65 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 31.6N 54.3W

60 KT 70 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 30.8N 54.2W

65 KT 75 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 33.0N 52.5W

65 KT 75 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 36.0N 51.5W

60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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