General Situation: Mid to upper level trough over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico to the Western Caribbean Sea is streaming rich tropical moisture across the Bahamas as it moves across Central Florida through Tuesday. Pockets of convective activity and thunderstorms will affect parts of the NW and Central Bahamas today through Friday. Mid to Upper level trough will shift into the Western Atlantic Ocean north of the Bahamas by Thursday but some instability will continue across the area through Sunday as high pressure ridge builds across the Central and SE Bahamas.

Tuesday 12th – Mostly cloudy to occasionally overcast, humid and warm with few scattered showers or isolated thunderstorms during the daytime through nightfall. Maximum temperature 91°F and minimum temperature 78°F. Small craft should continue exercise caution in the SE Bahamas. Winds ESE to SSE at 10 to 15 knots in the NW Bahamas, falling light and variable at times; SE’ly at 10 to 15 knots in the Central Bahamas and E to SE at 15 to 20 knots in the Bahamas. Seas 2 to 4 feet in the NW and Central Bahamas and 4 to 6 feet in the SE Bahamas.

Wednesday 13th – Partly cloudy to cloudy with few scattered showers or isolated thunderstorms during the daytime through night time. Maximum temperature 90°F and minimum temperature 78°F. Small craft should exercise caution across the Central and SE Bahamas. Winds SE’ly at 10 to 15 knots in the NW Bahamas and E to SE at 15 to 20 knots in the Central and SE Bahamas. Seas 2 to 4 feet in the NW Bahamas and 4 to 6 feet across the Central and SE Bahamas.

Thursday 14 th – Partly to mostly cloudy, humid and warm with few scattered shower or isolated thunderstorm during the day through night time. Maximum temperature 90°F and minimum temperature 77°F. Small craft should continue to exercise caution across the Central and SE Bahamas. Winds SE’ly at 10 to 15 knots across the NW Bahamas and E to SE at 15 to 20 knots in the Central and SE Bahamas decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the Central Bahamas later. Seas 2 to 4 feet in the NW Bahamas and 4 to 6 feet in the Central and SE Bahamas, falling to 2 to 4 feet in the Central Bahamas later.

Friday 15th – Partly cloudy to cloudy, warm and humid with few widely scattered showers or an isolated thunderstorm likely during the day through night time. Maximum temperature 91°F and minimum temperature 78°F. Small craft should exercise caution in the SE Bahamas. Winds SSE to SSW at 10 to 15 knots in the NW Bahamas, falling light and variable at times; SE to S at 10 to 15 knots in the Central Bahamas and E to SE at 15 to 20 knots in the SE Bahamas. Seas 2 to 4 feet in the NW and Central Bahamas and 4 to 6 feet in the SE Bahamas.

Saturday 16th – Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy, humid and warm with few scattered showers or isolated thunderstorms, mainly across the NW Bahamas during the daytime through nightfall. Maximum temperature 91°F and minimum temperature 78°F. Small craft should exercise caution in the SE Bahamas. Winds S’ly at 10 to 15 knots in the NW Bahamas, falling light and variable at times; SSE to S at 10 to 15 knots in the Central Bahamas and E to SE at 15 to 20 knots in the SE Bahamas. Seas 2 to 4 feet across the NW and Central Bahamas and 4 to 6 feet in the SE Bahamas.

Sunday 17th – Mostly cloudy to occasionally overcast, humid and warm with few scattered showers or isolated thunderstorm during the daytime through nightfall. Maximum temperature 90°F and minimum temperature 78°F. Winds SSE to SSW at 10 to 15 knots, backing E to SE at 10 to 15 knots in the NW Bahamas, falling light and variable at times and E to SE at 10 to 15 knots in the Central and SE Bahamas, falling light and variable at times. Seas 2 to 4 feet over the entire Bahamas, falling to 1 to 3 feet at times.

Beachgoers and Mariners should exercise extreme caution due to the risk of high surf and dangerous rip currents along the eastern shorelines during stated advisories. Boaters and beachgoers should be alert for possible waterspout activity and take all necessary precautions to protect life and property. Residents should be alert for the risk of localized flooding during heavy downpours and prolonged rainfall events.

Geoffrey N. Greene