All eyes are on the tropics as forecasters expect "Potential Tropical Cyclone 2" to become a tropical storm today. Below is the public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center at 11am, Monday, June 19, 2017.
BULLETINPotential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number 4NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL0220171100 AM AST Mon Jun 19 2017
...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ON DISTURBANCE ISSUED FORVENEZUELA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION-----------------------------------------------LOCATION...8.8N 56.8WABOUT 325 MI...525 KM ESE OF TRINIDADABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SE OF GRENADAMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HPRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/HMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS--------------------CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands hasdiscontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for that country.
The government of Venezuela has issued a Tropical Storm Warningfor the east coast of Venezuela from Pedernales to Cumana includingIsla de Margarita.
The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Bonaire.
The government of Aruba has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for thatcountry.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...* Trinidad* Tobago* Grenada* Venezuela from Pedernales to Cumana including Isla de Margarita
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...* Bonaire* Aruba
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions areexpected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions arepossible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitorproducts issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK------------------------------At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered nearlatitude 8.8 North, longitude 56.8 West. The system is moving towardthe west near 25 mph (41 km/h). A fast motion toward thewest-northwest is expected over the next 48 hours. On the forecasttrack, the disturbance is expected to move through the WindwardIslands and near the eastern coast of Venezuela tonight and earlyTuesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.Some strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, andthe disturbance is forecast to be a tropical storm when it movesthrough the Windward Islands and eastern Venezuela tonight andTuesday.
Thunderstorm activity associated with the disturbance continues toshow signs of organization, and additional development is likelyduring the next day or so.* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND----------------------WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reachportions of the warning area tonight, making outside preparationsdifficult or dangerous.
RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rainaccumulations of 2 to 4 inches over the Windward Islands and thenortheastern Venezuela Monday night and Tuesday.
NEXT ADVISORY-------------Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$Forecaster Landsea
