GENERAL SITUATION: A deepening low pressure system across Florida and the Carolinas will move quickly up the eastern United States while dragging a cold front and prefrontal activity through the Northwest and Central Bahamas through Tuesday night. The front will move through the Southeast Bahamas by Wednesday night followed by strong high pressure in its wake.
Tuesday 14th – Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy with some scattered showers or widely scattered thunderstorms across the NW and Central Bahamas during the day, improving through night time. Partly cloudy and warm in the SE Bahamas. Maximum temperature 82ºF and minimum temperature 66ºF. Small craft advisory for the NW Bahamas and a caution for the Central Bahamas. Winds SW to W at 15 to 25 knots in the NW Bahamas; SSE to SSW at 15 to 20 knots veering SW to W at 12 to 18 knots in the Central Bahamas later; E to SE at 10 to 15 knots veering SSE to SSW at 10 to 15 knots in the SE Bahamas. Seas 5 to 8 feet in the NW Bahamas, to 4 to 6 feet in the Central Bahamas decreasing to 3 to 5 feet later and 2 to 4 feet in the SE Bahamas.
Wednesday15th – Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Central and SE Bahamas through night time. Maximum temperature 77°F and minimum temperature 68°F. Small craft caution behind the front. Winds variable at 10 knots or less ahead of the front and NW’ly at 15 to 20 knots at times behind the front. Seas 3 feet or less ahead of the front and 4 to 7 feet at times behind the front.
Thursday 16th – Partly to mostly cloudy with lingering showers mainly across the Central and SE Bahamas through nightfall. Maximum temperature 70ºF and minimum temperature 57ºF. Small craft caution occasionally across the Bahamas. Winds N to NE at 12 to 18 knots across the Bahamas with occasional periods at 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet across the Bahamas with occasional seas 4 to 6 feet at times.
Friday 17th – Partly cloudy to cloudy with few scattered showers or isolated thunderstorms likely in the SE Bahamas through night time. Maximum temperature 74F and minimum temperature 66°F. Small craft caution in the NW Bahamas and an advisory for Central and SE Bahamas. Winds NE to E at 15 to 20 knots in the NW Bahamas and NE to E at 15 to 25 knots in the Central and SE Bahamas. Seas 4 to 6 feet in the NW Bahamas and 5 to 8 feet in the Central and SE Bahamas.
Saturday 18th – Partly cloudy to cloudy with few scattered showers mainly across the SE Bahamas through night time. Maximum temperature 76°F and minimum temperature 64°F. Small craft caution in the NW Bahamas will lift by afternoon and an advisory for the Central and SE Bahamas becomes a caution through the night. Winds NE to E at 15 to 20 knots at first, becomes 10 to 15 knots later in the NW Bahamas and NE to E at 20 to 25 knots, becomes a caution by night time. Seas 4 to 6 feet in the NW Bahamas drops to 2 to 4 feet later and 6 to 9 feet in the Central and SE Bahamas decreases to 4 to 6 feet later.
Sunday 19th – Partly to mostly sunny and warm with showers likely across the Central Bahamas. Fair and mild over most areas through night time with lingering showers around the SE Bahamas. Maximum temperature 78°F and minimum temperature 64°F. Small craft caution in the NW Bahamas by early afternoon. Winds light and variable at first in the NW Bahamas becomes NW to N at 15 to 20 knots by afternoon and NNW to NNE at 15 knots or less across the Central and SE Bahamas. Seas 3 feet or less at first in the NW Bahamas, builds to 4 to 7 feet later and seas 5 feet or less in the Central and SE Bahamas.
Beachgoers and mariners should exercise extreme caution due to the high risk of rip currents and rough surf, especially along the northern and eastern shorelines during stated advisories. Winds and seas will be higher in heavy showers and thunderstorms.
Geoffrey N. Greene
