The parties are announcing their candidates. The campaigners are beginning to hit the streets. The faithful are beginning to draw lines in the sand; putting everyone in the category of who is for their man and who is not.
The rich are beginning to get calls for money. You got it; the general election is approaching. The "silly season" is at hand.
Speeches will be made, rallies held, press conferences conducted -- ad nausea, talk show appearances had and thousands of T-shirts handed out.
In the end, however, some 172,000 Bahamian voters will determine who will be the next government of The Bahamas.
But this mass of native humanity, armed with the most sacred and powerful stroke in a democracy -- the vote, is not homogenous. They fit into at least seven groups of voter types. It is their mix in the upcoming election that will determine its outcome.
What are the seven types?
First, there are the partiers
These are the people for whom the election campaign is one long festival of bombast, frolicking, drinking and sycophantic cheering.
What the issues are, who the candidates are and what party is best for the country are irrelevant to them.
What matters to partiers is which party throws the best party.
They are also your "rent-a-crowd" group. Political parties pay partiers to make up the "mass" in their mass rallies. They pay them with music, drinks and occasional eats.
At smaller events, like demonstrations and rush outs, partiers literally receive money to be the crowd. Sometimes these crowds get rowdy because, after the events, their money is late or not paid at all. They are not committed and the key to getting their support is having the best show, making sure they are sober election day and getting them to the polls.
Partiers wake up the day after election, shake themselves out of their hangover and ask, "Who win again?"
Second, there are the opportunists
These are the people who throw a piece of paper in the air to see which way the wind is blowing and go in that direction.
The goal is to wake up the day after the election on the right side of the vote. If they pick the winning side there may be opportunity for government jobs, houses, contracts, board appointments, overseas placements or just plain connections.
Opportunists pay attention to the issues, but not to decide who has the best policy prescriptions for the problems facing the country. They do so to make sure that if their party begins to lose the argument and the wind begins to shift, they can make a seamless transition to the other side. Remember, for the opportunists, the aim is to be on the winning side.
Since politics, like basketball, can be a game of changing leads, the opportunists must pay close attention. In their closets you will always find a sufficient supply of all the T-shirts being given out at election time.
I remember two days after the last election seeing an elderly gentleman at Lynden Pindling International Airport in a spanking new PLP shirt.
I said to him, "So your party won."
His reply to me was shocking.
He said, "No, man; I is a Tommy man."
Point made! The day after election opportunists say, "Our team win; whichever team that is".
Third, there are the diehards
These are the people from both the major political parties whose favorite expression is, "I was born a PLP/FNM and I gan die and PLP/FNM". It does not matter to them what argument is made against their party, sound or not, they are only seeing colors and letters, red or yellow, FNM or PLP.
They pay attention to the issues only to ensure that they carry the party line, but beyond this, they knew from the day after the last election that they would be voting for their party this election. For them, the party could send a puppy as a candidate in their constituency, they votin' for that puppy
For diehards, the leader could be as daft as a daffodil, they would pump him up like a giant balloon. Their support is solid and their determination is shiftless. When they wake the day after election, their words are either "Oh Lord" or "Thank God".
Fourth, there are the disgruntles
These are your pissed off voters. They are angry with all parties and politicians. They don't think any of them are worth "#$@&".
For them, all politicians are crooks. All political parties are the same. You only see these candidates at election time and government is useless no matter who is in charge.
"No matter who wins," they say, "you still have to go earn a living".
Mind you, many of them are unemployed, and unemployable; underemployed; broke; and have much too high a view of themselves. They are pessimistic, sceptical, and sour. A candidate dreads meeting one of them during the camp aign because he/she knows they are in for a pointless grilling. They cause a candidate a lot of time because they have a thousand questions and a million comments
While the candidate knows that the long, drawn out, argumentative dialogue with the disgruntles seldom achieves anything, it is common courtesy to pay deference to every voter, even them.
There is a 50/50 chance that disgruntles show up at the polls to vote, but a 100 percent chance you will hear their voices on a talk show or see their letter in the newspapers.
On the day after election, disgruntles tend to say, "Jesus! Here we go again".
Fifth, there are the first timers or newbies
They are fresh out of high school, the recently unemployed, the just employed or juniors in college. They are mostly full of enthusiasm and hope about the future.
In the thousands, they will cast their vote for the first time.
To them politics is a mystery, somewhere between quantum physics and the secret ingredients of Mr. Krab's Krabby Patti.
At best they see politics as a necessary evil and at worse, as a circus full of clowns.
First timers do not put politics front and center in their lives. For the current crop, the millennials, Ariana Grande, PlayStation 5 and The Walking Dead are more interesting. These 18 to 24 year-olds were introduced to politics, largely, by their parents who use to have immense influence, but who have much less nowadays.
Today, the first timers get their political education through Facebook or Twitter. They know little about the issues, but are curious at times. They get more curious as the election campaigning heats up, especially as the rallies begin; after all, rallies are good outings. Their interest in politics is predominantly personality driven.
An exciting and/or engaging leader or candidate can get their attention; actual involvement in the campaign can keep it. Their enthusiasm during the election campaign is priceless, but their showing up to vote on election day is iffy. They have to be managed carefully to ensure their vote actually counts.
On the day after the election, the Newbies are likely to say, "Gee, now what?"
Sixth, there are the independents
These are people who are loyal to no political party but who, on closer examination, have a natural affection for the PLP, the party of Pindling, the father of the nation. They pay academic attention to the issues at election time. They pride themselves in their willingness to listen to all sides and make what they believe to be an intelligent decision about for whom to vote. They are usually between the ages of 25 and 45, middle income, educated and professional people.
They are genuine "swing voters" and the nonsense of the partiers, opportunists and diehards irritate them to no end. They have a natural distrust of government and regard themselves as nationalists and patriots. Their natural affection for the PLP is nostalgic, reflecting the party's historical and ideological role in the country's early development.
The PLP's disappointing leadership of the country in the waning years of Sir Lynden and, some would say, during the Christie years, loosened their loyalty.
Now, they might vote FNM, PLP, DNA or not at all.
On the day after election, they would normally say, "Ah well, time to go to work".
Seventh, there are the politicos
These are the political animals in the country. They live, breathe and sleep politics. Politics is in their blood and their political activism goes back generations. It is from this group that the candidates, generals, and loyalists of political parties often emerge.
They have deep knowledge of politics and not just the issues. They know about the people in politics -- who to trust and who not to trust; who to go to first when campaigning and who to go to last; who you have to pay, Lord have mercy, and whom "not to pay". They know the diehards, opportunists, independents and partiers.
As they age, they tend to lose a bit of touch with all the groups, but they often hand the reigns over to a new set of politicos. These politicos come from all streams of society. Some are PhDs while others couldn't read to save their own lives.
Some are rich while others only have two pennies to rub together because their candidate just gave it to them.
Some are classy and some are, well, class challenged.
Some are highly ethical while others think ethics is a "trifling import", as Henry Miller put it.
Yes, the politicos are a rainbow, but they are a powerful lot in the body politic of The Bahamas.
They are party mouthpieces, workhorses, financial supporters and brain trusts.
Vote
These are the groups that make up that 172,000 plus eligible voters upon whom the political parties rely to give them the government after the next election. The groups are not pure. Some people crossover into others. But there are many who can largely be characterized as one or the other.
What are their mix as a percentage of the whole? I have absolutely no concrete answer to this question; that is, no answer based on any science. However, I can venture a somewhat informed guess. That guess is as follows: the partiers (10 percent), the opportunists (15 percent), the diehards (40 percent), the independents (15 percent), the disgruntles (five percent), the first timers (10 percent) and the politicos (5 percent).
How will these various groups vote in the upcoming elections?
The crude assessment of my Kitchen Cabinet and I literally mean my "kitchen" cabinet is this: the partiers favor the PLP; the opportunists favor the FNM; the diehards favor the PLP; the politicos are an equal split between the major parties; the disgruntles favor the FNM; the independents favor the other parties; and the first timers favor the other parties.
On this present assessment, the upcoming election will be extremely tight, almost a virtual tie between the two major parties with the fringe parties receiving a much higher count than at any time in our history. This, of course, is in terms of the popular vote.
How the votes fall in each constituency is another matter that might be taken up when the parties name all of their candidates and the cuts of the constituencies are known. Suffice it to say for now that, my predictive crude model suggests that the behavior of the opportunists, independents and first timers may well dictate the outcome of the upcoming election. It also suggests that the disaffection among the voters of this nation has grown significantly and that the percentage of support that fringe parties will get will increase comfortably.
What will actually happen? We will see, but it sure is interesting to look at the voter types and proffer a guess. Next week we will look at the five types of candidates we see at election time.
o Zhivargo Laing is a Bahamian economic consultant and former Cabinet minister who represented the Marco City constituency in the House of Assembly.
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