The Progressive Liberal Party (PLP) has had a good run of momentum. It won the 2010 Elizabeth by-election, the 2012 general election and the 2012 North Abaco by-election. The PLP now has 30 seats in the 38-seat House of Assembly and Hubert Ingraham has been retired.
The next test for the PLP is the gambling referendum and its aftermath. The PLP has taken a strange position. It is bringing forward the referendum but says it has no position on the question to be voted on. When a political organization brings forward a referendum, it has a stake in the process, the questions and the outcome. It is impossible for the PLP to have no stake in what is to come.
If the referendum fails, the PLP will be in a difficult position. The Bahamian people would have opposed an initiative brought forward by the governing party, leaving the governing party with the task of doing something no administration has been able to do - that is, close the numbers houses.
What could be worse for the PLP is if the criticism that has emerged regarding the confused referendum process worsens in the run-up to the referendum. People want to know what the question will be. People want to know what the new law will look like. People want to know who will be licensed to operate what businesses and exactly how the tax structure will work. There will be few answers to these questions before the referendum.
After the North Abaco by-election, the PLP looked invincible. With a divided opposition the governing party looked likely to have a free run for some time. However, the beginning of discontent with the PLP could start with a botched referendum if it is not careful.
Mitt Romney looked all but out of the U.S. presidential race until the first of the three debates. His performance there brought him back to where he today could be elected president. The incumbent president, Barack Obama, was without energy and drive in that debate. One sub-par performance cost him quite a bit.
The PLP should learn from this and use this week to answer the questions so many Bahamians have about this vote in order to preserve the momentum the party has built up. The church already opposes legalizing gambling for Bahamians. If the opposition Free National Movement (FNM) too mobilizes the no vote, the PLP's referendum could be defeated. Political good times can come to abrupt ends.

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