The post of leader of the opposition is one of the more difficult political offices for all manner of reasons. Yet, it is a stepping stone to potentially the most rewarding elected office in our parliamentary system. The ultimate success of an opposition leader is becoming prime minister.
There are various criteria and circumstances which make for a successful leader of the opposition, among them, personal attributes and skills, luck and, "Events, dear boy. Events", as Harold Macmillan might advise.
The criteria for success form a singular question: Does a candidate look and feel like a potential prime minister? The answer is a complex judgement assessing whether an individual possesses the portfolio of personal and political character, and meets a certain threshold, making them suitable to serve as head of government.
Potential prime ministers are assessed by several inner and outer circles of evaluation and influence inclusive of party councils, members and donors. They are evaluated by opinion leaders, the media, and business and interest groups.
Decision
Yet, the ultimate test is that of voters, who, when asked for their five cents about whether someone seems like a prime minister, offer a visceral yeah, nay or perhaps. Choosing a leader can sometimes be more a decision of the heart and the gut, than primarily of the head.
Leaders are spoken of in terms of charisma, which speaks to the giftedness of an individual, as well as, "personal magnetism: the ability to inspire enthusiasm, interest, or affection in others by means of personal charm or influence."
The broader question of whether a leader of the opposition seems like a potential prime minister involves a litany of sub-questions. Is this person articulate enough to communicate a vision? Is this person thoughtful enough to think through complex questions of political philosophy, policy and governance?
Is this person a unifier, able to bring various factions together? Can they win their seat? Raise money? Oversee the party? Are their weaknesses something that can be overcome or mitigated, or are these weaknesses so outsized that they will prove disastrous for a party.
Does this person have gravitas? Does this person have public appeal and presence? And, a fundamental decisive question: Does an individual have good judgement, which is one of the defining attributes of a good leader.
The profile of a capable leader of the opposition and potential prime minister includes: effectiveness in public communication; public policy vision; organizational skills and party management; and general political skills.
Among the multiple intelligences required is the intellectual acumen necessary for serving as head of government, and emotional intelligence, which includes the ability to accept and integrate constructive criticism.
Dr. Hubert Minnis received a rare gift in politics when he was elected unopposed as leader of the FNM. Such gifts come with caveats, especially for those who skip the vetting process involved in a contest for the top spot.
The ongoing vetting process for whether Minnis is the best person to lead the FNM into the next general election is taking place within the party and the public. Even leaders who win out in a contested bid are constantly under evaluation.
In the UK, Ed Milliband defeated older brother David to become Labour leader following the party's defeat in 2010. The rivalry between the siblings for the top post will re-emerge if the younger Milliband is seen as vulnerable.
Assessed
Leaders are compared to past leaders and potential competitors. Hubert Minnis will be compared to Hubert Ingraham, Perry Christie and others in the PLP and the FNM who may be potential party leaders. He will be assessed on his own merit and in comparison to others.
His performance as leader of the opposition has so far been unexceptional and at times poor. All leaders make errors of judgement. But, Minnis has exhibited consistently flawed judgement. There are telling and instructive examples.
Soon after the general election, and as reported in this journal, he announced, "that he will vote in favor of legalizing gambling if the government holds a referendum on the issue." This is more than a rookie error of judgement. It is a colossal misjudgement for the leader of the opposition to say that he would vote yes, even before a question or questions to be put to the electorate have been formulated.
Did he make this statement on such an involved and contentious issue in consultation with his party? By speaking so impulsively and rashly he seemed to bind his party to a position even as the government did not appear to know what the question(s) is/are at that time.
The point was made in a pastoral reflection by the Roman Catholic archbishop who counselled that there are many questions that need to be addressed prior to a referendum.
Minnis raised expectations, making the North Abaco by-election a test of his leadership. On both counts he failed. It is usually better to lower rather than raise expectations in politics - a lesson even novices tend to know.
He famously vowed to move to Abaco, promising a greater victory than Hubert Ingraham's May 7 win. He marshalled his forces in Abaco, spending considerable time in the constituency. Various of the party's by-election ads prominently featured him. Yet, when the party lost, he clumsily rushed to distance himself from the loss.
Then in a spectacular misjudgement that was divisive, crass and an extraordinary display of ingratitude to the man who sought to ride to his rescue in North Abaco, Minnis threw Ingraham under the bus, and then, "reversed back" with his comments about the former prime minister.
Minnis has thus far not only been inept in terms of political strategy. His public communications have been weak. He fails to inspire audiences at rallies as his speeches are ponderous, his delivery unexciting, mirroring the communications challenges that Philip Brave Davis has in his quest to succeed Perry Christie.
Many political careers are made or falter on the floor of the House of Assembly, including that of Hubert Ingraham who proved effective as both an independent MP, then as leader of the opposition, catapulting him into the prime ministership.
Stumbled
Minnis' parliamentary skills and performance are weak. He is not quick on his feet in the thrust and parry of debate. In the UK, Sir Alec Douglas-Home continually stumbled over policy details in the House of Commons. This made his supporters constantly nervous when he spoke, and he appeared weak to voters.
Overcoming the heckling and jeering of the side opposite is a part of the parliamentary game. When, in frustration, Minnis hurled a homophobic attack on another member, he made the mistake of overly personalizing a debate and appearing intolerant. Going forward, he will have to restrain such rhetoric.
The broader communications challenge, especially in the contemporary media culture, is to articulate cogently and fluently the party's vision, philosophy and policy to multiple audiences.
Minnis has been known for his record as an MP for the FNM stronghold of Killarney. What he has learned in that capacity is useful. But translating that experience to the national level is akin to the vast difference between running a retail store and heading a global chain like Wal-Mart.
Questions remain about Minnis' leadership style, organizational capacity, party management and public relations skills. Political parties tend to be fissiparous affairs. Successful leaders are able to unify the party around their leadership and a vision. Thus far, Minnis appears to have failed at both, even seemingly alienating various groups in the party.
Having won office under Ingraham, FNMs now have a greater "instinct for power", and are hungry for a leader who will return the party to government. This may be Minnis' greatest hurdle. In the country and in the party, the perception is cementing that he does not have what it takes to be prime minister.
And, increasingly more and more FNMs are of the view that the party will lose the next election with him at the helm.
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www.bahamapundit.com.
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