Dear Editor,

I once held the view that the October 15 by-election in North Abaco would be a crucial test for Free National Movement (FNM) Leader Dr. Hubert Minnis (Killarney).  I was of the view that if Minnis fails to win this electoral contest, his leadership position would be in grave jeopardy.  According to one popular Internet newspaper, other FNM high ranking officials and former (FNM) parliamentarians would begin to covertly campaign for his highly coveted position as leader of the official opposition if the FNM is unable to keep North Abaco.

There are some Bahamians posting all sorts of clandestine conspiracy theories on Facebook involving a current FNM parliamentarian politicking for Minnis' job.  According to these people, after the FNM's standard bearer Greg Gomez loses to the Progressive Liberal Party's (PLP) Renardo Curry, Minnis will be dumped by the hierarchy of his party.  A win for the FNM in North Abaco, however, would solidify Minnis' hold on the leadership post.

These are the rumors circulating on several Internet news sites.  I believe that many of the authors of these Internet articles are just trying to create mischief within the FNM by trying to create the impression that there is this ongoing rift between Minnis and the deputy leader, Loretta Butler-Turner.
They want the Bahamian public to believe that there is a tug of war going on between Minnis, Butler-Turner and former FNM leader, Hubert A. Ingraham.

 I think a victory for the FNM would certainly solidify Minnis' hold on the leadership post and would forestall any attempted coup.  The movers and shakers of the FNM would no doubt allow Minnis to remain in his post till 2017.  Why fix something that is not broken?  That being said, I am beginning to suspect that the pressure is really on the governing PLP to pull off a victory in this contest, and not Minnis and the FNM.

We must bear in mind that the PLP is in control of the government; thus making it the favorite to win.  In the 1997 South Andros by-election, the then governing FNM party's Ronald Bosfield was able to win that race.  No one was surprised at that result because on March 14 of that same year, the FNM won 34 of the 40 seats in the House of Assembly.  That number jumped to 35 seats after Bosfield's by-election victory.

 South Androsians voted for the FNM because at the time it dominated the political landscape.  It made no sense supporting an opposition party that received a thrashing at the polls.  For all intents and purposes, every one expected the FNM to win.  That was the first and only time an FNM held that seat.  Ever since Sir Lynden O. Pindling first won that seat in the late 1960s, South Andros has remained an impregnable stronghold for the PLP.  I believe that the North Abaco race will tell us once and for all if the PLP has truly lost momentum since May 7.

 Considering the fact that the governing party has 29 of the 38 seats in Parliament, and has concentrated its campaign machinery in that Family Island area, it would be nothing short of devastating if the PLP loses.  What's more, a very popular PLP news source has gone on record as stating that the FNM will be blown out.  Clearly the pressure is mounting on the PLP to win in North Abaco.  On the other hand, Minnis really has nothing to prove.  As far as I am concerned, the FNM is the clear-cut under-dog in this race.  Few Bahamians are expecting the FNM to win.  Further, Greg Gomez is a virtual unknown to many in The Bahamas and has only started campaigning several months ago.

If he manages to get just 40 percent of the votes, he should come out of that contest feeling very good about his campaign.  After all, he is the under-dog.  But if Gomez wins, then that could possibly mean that the PLP has lost plenty steam since the general election.  It might also portend defeat for the governing party in 2017.  In any event, the onus is on the PLP to win.  It's theirs for the taking.

- Kevin Evans

Click here to read more at The Nassau Guardian