Approaching its third anniversary in office, the Progressive Liberal Party (PLP) is facing widespread discontent. There is a mood in the country that does not correspond with Prime Minister Perry Christie's unbridled optimism. The mushrooming debacle involving the Bahamas Agriculture and Marine Science Institute (BAMSI) and the Ministry of Works is a throwback to the multiple scandals that climaxed in the sinking of the SS PLP in 2007.
The revelation that the BAMSI male dorm that was destroyed by fire on January 15 was uninsured now seems to be but one element in a bigger story that reflects poorly on the Christie administration and its handling of this fiasco. Added to this have been the spectacular failure of the Bahamas Electricity Corporation, still unanswered questions about a letter of intent for a waste-to-energy facility, confusion surrounding Bahamas Junkanoo Carnival and lingering fallout over the government's decision last year to ignore the will of voters in the 2013 gambling referendum.
The arrogant manner in which government officials have responded to cries for greater accountability, repeated conflicting statements from political authorities, and in some instances, the incompetent handling of these issues continue to weigh on the Christie-led government. The introduction of value-added tax has also made the government unpopular, notwithstanding the many explanations from the government that this move was unavoidable and had also been the FNM's plan.
The newest budding scandal involves Agriculture and Local Government Minister V. Alfred Gray, who admitted to us on Friday he spoke to an island magistrate in his constituency on Thursday about releasing a man convicted of a crime -- albeit minor -- on bail pending the outcome of an appeal. Gray said he thought this was the "right thing to do" and does not see it as interfering in a judicial process. As that plays out, Christie is likely to face another tough week. The Gray matter will add to the tsunami of troubles facing this administration.
Encouraged
Last week, the prime minister told National Review that despite the sometimes harsh assessments from critics, he feels encouraged.
"With respect to the governance of the country and the overall management of the country and specifically the overall management of the economy, I continue to be upbeat and optimistic because I know what is taking place," he responded, when asked whether he is aware how hugely unpopular he is at this juncture in the term.
"I have no doubt whatsoever that employment is going to be heavily impacted and positively impacted."
As he has done multiple times, Christie then pointed to investment projects he said are coming on-stream, and the thousands of jobs he has projected will be created. Christie has said that another 8,000 jobs will be added by year's end, driven primarily by Baha Mar. He also talked about the 22,000 jobs he said his adminstration created in its first term.
We reminded Christie that in 2007, unemployment was at 6.9 percent, down from 9.1 percent in 2002 when the PLP took office, yet the PLP was kicked out of power by an angry electorate that had, had its fill of a scandal-ridden government. Christie told National Review this rejection during good economic times was a lesson for the PLP. But incredibly, he still seems to miss completely the message that was sent by voters.
"The real lesson from it was that we never allowed ourselves to effectively communicate to the Bahamian people on what we were doing. So the point is, it doesn't make sense to a political organization that wants to perpetuate itself to do good things but have those good things not known by the people," he said.
While Christie might continue to believe that the reason for the loss was ineffective communication, his party's own post-election survey outlined reasons to the contrary. The report was a tightly-guarded secret due to its embarrassing findings. It was eventually made public after The Nassau Guardian met a copy in its garbage bin.
The Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Report set out what the reasons were for the PLP's stunning loss in the 2007 general election. It revealed that 57 percent of respondents cited Christie's perceived "weak leadership" as the reason they decided not to vote PLP. The "weak leadership" issue was widely discussed before and after the election campaign, with Hubert Ingraham, at the time leader of the FNM, stating repeatedly that the 2007 election was about leadership.
The survey said the alleged scandals that plagued the PLP leading up to the vote took their toll. Ahead of the 2007 race, Ingraham adopted this theme and relentlessly drummed at it.
"The Christie administration is the poster boy for failed governance. They have plunged our country into chaos," said Ingraham at a rally at R. M. Bailey Park on April 27, 2007.
"Mr. Christie's PLP is besieged by scandal and incompetence. They have lost the will and capacity to fix their own mistakes, or maybe they never had it."
The Greenberg Report highlighted steps the PLP should take to rebrand its image, so as to gain the confidence of the Bahamian electorate. It recommended expanding the party's base; cleansing the party's reputation; conveying Christie's leadership qualities and advancing a progressive social agenda.
In 2012, voters -- many of them angered by the sale of the Bahamas Telecommunication Company, and the Ingraham administration's botched handling of the New Providence roadwork project -- rejected Ingraham's message this time around, and bought into the PLP's promises to turn the economy around, drive down crime, deliver on National Health Insurance (within the first year) and provide much-needed mortgage relief.
Christie also promised to take a hardline approach against any minister found wanting. In 2012, he proved again that he can win an election. He also proved inspiring for a portion of the electorate who felt disrespected by Ingraham over the former PM's failure to listen to their cries, and be more in tune with their wishes.
Christie benefited from this disconnect. He was back. He was redeemed.
Replay
Three years into his term, Christie is facing a rough ride. It has been worsened because of the irrational, hallow and ill-considered promises made by the PLP on the election campaign. Those promises fueled unrealistic expectations.
The government's inability to deliver on several key pledges and increasing signs that the prime minister does not have a firm grip on his crew are eating away at the base of the PLP's ship. It would be foolhardy for Christie to bank on a strong economy to shape his legacy and position the PLP for another term in office.
Improving the economy is, of course, critical. We need jobs. We need ownership. People need to feel good about themselves. They need to be able to meet their obligations.
But meeting these needs is not enough for them to also feel good about their government and have faith in their prime minister. A key conclusion of the strategists hired by the PLP for the 2007 post-election survey rings true today.
Speaking of the PLP, the strategists wrote in their report, "It needs to take concrete actions that convey its seriousness about purging corruption from the party and state. There is a perception among voters -- one deepened by the FNM -- that the PLP has become more focused on doing things that benefit its own politicians than for the people."
Christie does nothing to fight this perception when he makes statements like the one he made last week when he was asked to respond to a claim by the Democratic National Alliance that the government issued contracts for BAMSI to "PLP cronies".
"The contract works that were going on down there, by and large, were intended to be given to people who live in that community," he said. "Now, whether all of them are PLPs, I mean I hope some of them are. I hope the majority of them are, because the former government did a remarkable job in being able to empower FNM contactors."
Christie might have been playing convention politics with such a statement. It really was an extraordinary thing for a prime minister to say into a reporter's microphone.
During that same interview, we asked him whether he understood how man y people now feel about the government. While saying he felt "encouraged", he added that it is normal for governments to be unpopular during the mid-term. Christie also insisted that he remains connected to the pulse of the electorate.
"I am saying that we use every indicator to understand what people want, what people are thinking, their disappointments. Because it must all be calculated into how you go about shifting policies and addressing the needs and wants of the people you represent," he told us.
At this point in his second term in office as prime minister, Christie, who is showing no indication that he plans to exit the political stage come 2017, might benefit from another read of the Greenberg report. Even with a feckless opposition, the chaotic path his administration is on could lead to a replay of 2007.
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