HURRICANE PAULA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   8A

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010

700 AM CDT WED OCT 13 2010



...SMALL BUT STRONG HURRICANE PAULA MOVING OVER THE YUCATAN

CHANNEL... 





SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...21.3N 85.9W

ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM E OF CANCUN MEXICO

ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...



NONE.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...



A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...

INCLUDING COZUMEL

* THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO CUBA



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE



THE WARNINGS FOR YUCATAN MEXICO WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER

THIS MORNING. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE

MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.





DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS

ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST. PAULA IS

MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL

MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING.  A TURN TOWARD THE

NORTHEAST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY

THIS AFTERNOON.  ON THIS TRACK...THE SMALL CORE OF HURRICANE PAULA

WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TODAY...AND BE NEAR

OR OVER WESTERN CUBA BY TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH

HIGHER GUSTS.  PAULA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE

SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS

EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.



HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM

THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60

MILES...95 KM.



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS COULD AFFECT THE MEXICAN COAST

WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT

GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TODAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE

EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME WESTERN CUBA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH

HURRICANE CONDITIONS FORECAST BY TONIGHT.



RAINFALL...PAULA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS

OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES

POSSIBLE...OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. IN AREAS OF

MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE

LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.



STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS

4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN

AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA.  THE SURGE WILL

BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. A STORM SURGE IS

EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE EAST COAST

OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BUT WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATER THIS

MORNING.