The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is now underway, and forecasters are sounding the alarm. According to the latest outlook from NOAA, conditions are ripe for above-normal activity, with a 60% chance of an active season that could bring a string of storms through the region.
NOAA’s projections call for 13 to 19 named storms, 6 to 10 hurricanes, and 3 to 5 major hurricanes — those Category 3 or higher systems with winds of 111 mph or more. The agency places 70% confidence in this range, and it's a forecast The Bahamas can’t afford to ignore.
Though the season officially opened on June 1, the real danger typically builds later in the summer — with August through October representing the most volatile window for our islands. This year, that danger is amplified. Experts are tracking record-warm ocean temperatures, weak upper-level winds, and a strong West African monsoon — all signals that the Atlantic is primed for storm formation, and that those storms could rapidly intensify.
“This outlook is a call to action: be prepared,” urged National Weather Service Director Ken Graham.
We’ve seen similar conditions before — notably in 2010, a year that brought 19 named storms. Among them was Hurricane Igor, a Category 4 monster that skirted The Bahamas with dangerous surf and flooding. While we were spared the worst, the season’s intensity was a clear warning: we’re always in the path, even if the eye doesn’t make landfall.
And storms don’t need to come ashore to do damage. Just last year, Helene and Debby dumped more than 30 inches of rain in the southeastern U.S., triggering lethal inland floods. For island nations like ours, where terrain and drainage are fragile, rainfall and storm surge can be just as deadly as wind.
Now is the time to act. Review your storm plan, inspect your roof, secure documents, check your insurance, and avoid the last-minute rush for supplies. It only takes one storm to change everything.
An updated outlook will be released in August, but don’t wait. Be proactive, stay informed, and follow BahamasLocal for continuing coverage throughout the season.
