000

ABNT20 KNHC 011750

TWOAT



Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

200 PM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024



For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:



Active Systems:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical

Storm Kirk, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.



Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:

A broad trough of low pressure is producing a large area of

disorganized showers and thunderstorms from the southwestern

Caribbean Sea into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental

conditions could support some gradual development of this system,

and a tropical depression could form towards the end of this week or

this weekend as the broader disturbance moves fully into the Gulf of

Mexico. Interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast should continue to

monitor the progress of this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.



Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL91):

Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs organization in

association with an area of low pressure located a few hundred

miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental

conditions appear conducive for further development of this system,

and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next

day or two while it moves slowly westward over the eastern

tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.



$$

Forecaster Papin/Mora

Click here to read more at The National Hurricane Center