Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Jun 03 2023

000
WTNT42 KNHC 030840
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Arlene Discussion Number

8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

AL022023
400 AM CDT Sat Jun 03 2023

Arlene appears to be commencing a weakening trend. The strong
southwesterly shear that had been affecting the system has shifted
to a westerly or west-northwesterly direction, likely because the
upper-level trough axis has moved to the east of the tropical
cyclone. This is causing an even more hostile upper-level
environment for Arlene on the back side of the upper trough,
since the deep convection is weakening while being stripped
farther to the east of the center. The current intensity
estimate is kept at 35 kt for this advisory, in agreement with
a subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB and an objective estimate
from UW-CIMSS. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled
to investigate the system later this morning.

The cyclone is moving a little faster toward the south-southeast,
or at about 150/8 kt. Today and tonight, Arlene is expected to turn
toward the southeast within the flow on the western and southern
side of a mid-level trough near the Florida Peninsula. The official
track forecast is close to both the simple and corrected dynamical
consensus model solutions.

Based on the current trends in the cloud pattern and the
unfavorable atmospheric environment of strong shear and relatively
dry low- to mid-tropospheric air, weakening is likely. Arlene is
forecast to become a depression later today, degenerate into a
remnant low late tonight or early Sunday, and dissipate thereafter.
This is similar to the previous official forecast and in good
agreement with the numerical guidance.

Although Arlene is forecast to weaken well offshore, there is still
the potential for heavy rainfall over portions of the southern
Florida peninsula through today.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 24.5N 85.5W

35 KT 40 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 23.7N 84.7W

30 KT 35 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 23.3N 82.8W

25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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