000

ABNT20 KNHC 030455

TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

200 AM EDT Mon Oct 3 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:

An elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles

south of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized

showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast

to be favorable for some gradual development, and a tropical

depression is likely to form around the middle part of this week.

Further development will become less likely by the end of the week

due to increasing upper-level winds. The system is forecast to move

westward, then turn northwestward or northward by the end of the

week over the eastern tropical Atlantic.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

East of the Windward Islands:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located

several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands have changed

little in organization during the past several hours. Further

development of the wave is possible, however, and a tropical

depression could form during the next few days while it moves

generally westward at 15 to 20 mph, reaching the Windward Islands

and the eastern Caribbean Sea by midweek.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$

Forecaster Roberts

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