October 26, 2020
Issued at 200 AM EDT Mon Oct 26 2020
WTNT33 KNHC 260553
Tropical Storm Zeta Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Oct 26 2020
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING ZETA...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Pinar del Rio Cuba
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was
located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 83.9 West. Zeta is
drifting toward the north-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h), but a
faster northwestward motion is expected over the next couple of
days, followed by a turn to the north. On the forecast track, the
center of Zeta will move near or over the northern Yucatan Peninsula
or the Yucatan Channel later today or tonight, move over the
southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and approach the northern Gulf
Coast on Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Zeta is expected to become a
hurricane before it moves near or over the Yucatan Peninsula.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.41 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Tropical Storm Zeta can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.
RAINFALL: Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12
inches are possible through Wednesday along and east-northeast of
Zetas track from Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, central to western
Cuba, and the northeast Yucatan peninsula of Mexico. Additional
rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with local amounts of 4 inches
are possible across Southern Florida and the Keys through Tuesday,
with isolated storm total accumulations of 8 inches.
Between Wednesday and Friday, storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches,
with local 6 inch amounts, is expected across sections of the U.S.
Gulf Coast and the southern U.S. near and in advance of Zeta. Heavy
rainfall will spread north into the Tennessee Valley, Southern
Appalachians, and portions of the Mid-Atlantic States near and in
advance of Zeta late in the week. The expected rainfall could lead
to flash flooding and minor river flooding.
By Wednesday, heavy rainfall associated with Zeta will begin to
affect the central Gulf Coast region, which may lead to flash
flooding in urban areas.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula by late today. Tropical
storm conditions could occur in the warning area in western Cuba
beginning later today.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 1-3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in the Hurricane Warning area near and to the north of where
the center makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.
Click here to read more at The National Hurricane Center