000

ABNT20 KNHC 180501

TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

200 AM EDT Sun Oct 18 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a non-tropical low

pressure system located about 500 miles east-southeast of Bermuda

have not become significantly better organized over the past

several hours. Gradual development is expected, and a subtropical

depression or storm is very likely to form during the next day or

two while the low meanders well to the southeast of Bermuda.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days

over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of

this system will be possible through the middle of next week while

it moves slowly northward or north-northwestward over the western

Caribbean Sea.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$

Forecaster Pasch

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